Risk Analysis Dynamic Model in the Implementation of Construction Projects Based on Markov Random Processes

Abstract

Accounting for possible risks that affect the successful implementation of construction projects is one of the most important tasks in planning and managing construction. The main problem for risk accounting is that they arise under the influence of random factors under conditions of high uncertainty. Therefore, the vast majority of risk accounting methods in construction are based on probabilistic models. Given the fact that recently the level of uncertainty in almost all areas of economic activity has increased significantly, it is necessary to develop new approaches to risk analysis that would respond as accurately and quickly as possible to emerging threats. Aim. The purpose of the study is to develop a mathematical model based on the theory of random Markov processes, which allows, in a probabilistic approach, to analyze the negative impact of adverse factors on the implementation of construction projects in the dynamics of their receipt under conditions of high uncertainty in order to increase the efficiency of construction work. Materials and methods. The risk assessment model of the influence of unfavorable factors on a construction project, presented in the paper, is based on the theory of Markov random processes, which makes it possible to assess the probability of the implementation of possible threats with varying degrees of damage, and to calculate risks during construction work. The model assumes that threats that cause different levels of damage to a construction project arrive at random times and require different times to eliminate them. To implement the model, a system of differential equations is given, which is solved by numerical methods. An analysis of the solution under various conditions of threats is carried out. The influence of negative factors on the construction project during its long-term implementation is considered separately. The analysis of the influence of temporal and probabilistic parameters of the task on the degree of risks in the implementation of construction projects was carried out. Results. The relevance of developing a risk assessment model for the implementation of construction projects is shown, goals and objectives for scientific research are set. The ways of solving the set tasks are given and substantiated. A mathematical model has been developed that makes it possible to estimate the probabilities of finding a construction project in various states, differing in different degrees of risk during the implementation of the project. On the basis of numerical methods, the practical implementation of the model is given for various parameters characteri¬zing the influence of negative factors on the progress of the construction project. The results of the practical implementation of the model are analyzed, recommendations are given for using the model in practice. Conclusion. The presented dynamic risk assessment model for the implementation of construction projects can serve as the basis for building an optimal control system for the progress of construction work and making decisions on the organization of construction activities.