Risk analysis for flood control operation of seasonal flood-limited water level incorporating inflow forecasting error

Zhou, Yanlai; Guo, Shenglian

doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.901515

Cited by 33 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Rechecking characteristic flood levels has been studied by many relative scholars. Among them, Andrade [1], Li et al [2], and Zhou and Guo [3] had confirmed it. Currently, designing flood frequency and flood risk are usually used for quantitative analysis of rechecking characteristic flood levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…The characteristic parameter values of TGR are given in Table 1. The current flood control operating rule of TGR is referenced by Zhou and Guo [3]. Figure 2 shows that the mean and quartile of maximum flood levels increase with the increasing value of n, however, the upper of maximum flood levels is less than or equal to 180.4 m and the lower of maximum flood levels is larger than or equal to 175 m. Density probability curve of normal distribution for checking flood levels under four kinds of sample sizes is shown in Figure 3.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rechecking the characteristic flood levels of a built reservoir after extending the hydrologic time series

Zhou¹,

Xu²,

Wang³

et al. 2015

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

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Reservoirs are one of the most efficient infrastructures for integrated water resources development and management in a river basin. Rechecking characteristic flood levels plays a more and more important role in flood risk management, especially with extending hydrologic time series for a built reservoir. Hydrologic uncertainty is a key factor which impacts probability distribution of characteristic flood levels. Methodology of stochastic differential equation for flood routing is proposed in order to derive probability distribution of characteristic flood level for a built reservoir. The Three Gorges reservoir in the Changjiang River basin of China is selected for a case study. The uncertainty of flood is transformed into uncertainty of characteristic flood level so as to analyze probability distribution of characteristic flood level. One hundred and twenty-eight years of daily runoff data from 1882 to 2009 have been used to test the method. The results indicate that the proposed method can make an effective derivation of probability distribution of characteristic flood level by considering hydrologic uncertainty. Reliability of hydrologic time series and original checking of flood levels (180.4 m) increases with the increasing value of n. Reliabilities of the hydrologic time series and checking of flood levels are 93.19% and 99.17% under the sample size 120, respectively. The research results will provide

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Rechecking the characteristic flood levels of a built reservoir after extending the hydrologic time series

Zhou¹,

Xu²,

Wang³

et al. 2015

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…After several structural and non-structural measures are formulated and designed to cope with the breakout landslide, it is imperative to undertake a flood risk analysis [22][23][24][25] for selecting an appropriate and cost-effective emergency disposal solution from the standpoint of minimizing losses.…”

Section: Non-structural Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergency Disposal Solution for Control of a Giant Landslide and Dammed Lake in Yangtze River, China

Chen

Zhao

Zhou

et al. 2019

Water

Self Cite

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Although landslide early warning and post-assessment is of great interest for mitigating hazards, emergency disposal solutions for properly handling the landslide and dammed lake within a few hours or days to mitigate flood risk are fundamentally challenging. In this study, we report a general strategy to effectively tackle the dangerous situation created by a giant dammed lake with 770 million cubic meters of water volume and formulate an emergency disposal solution for the 25 million cubic meters of debris, composed of engineering measures of floodgate excavation and non-engineering measures of reservoirs/hydropower stations operation. Such a disposal solution can not only reduce a large-scale flood (10,000-year return period, 0.01%) into a small-scale flood (10-year return period, 10%) but minimize the flood risk as well, guaranteeing no death raised by the giant landslide.

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“…The resistance can be determined by the safe water level H s . Thus, the flood control risk probability P R is defined as the probability of H ( t ) exceeding H s (Y. Zhou & Guo, )

P_{R} = P ((), H ((), t) > H_{s}) .

…”

Section: Flood Control Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood‐risk analysis based on a stochastic differential equation method

Dai

Zhou

Chen

et al. 2018

J Flood Risk Management

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During flood control reservoir operation, uncertainties in inflow forecast, the reservoir discharge capacity curve, and the reservoir storage curve significantly impact the reservoir operation processes and cause flood risk. This article proposes an improved stochastic differential equation (SDE) method for flood-risk analysis. The uncertainties mentioned above were quantified, and the mean and variance of the water level at each time step were calculated, then the flood risk was estimated and the impact of these uncertainties on flood control reservoir operation was evaluated. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was selected as a case study. Results show that the variance of the water level at each time step does not monotonically increase over time. Inflow forecast and flood hydrograph shape work together and have a great influence on the flood risk. The method provides a way for flood-risk assessment for flood control reservoir operation.flood control reservoir operation, flood-risk analysis, stochastic differential equation, Three Gorges Reservoir, uncertainties

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Risk analysis for flood control operation of seasonal flood-limited water level incorporating inflow forecasting error

Cited by 33 publications

References 28 publications

Rechecking the characteristic flood levels of a built reservoir after extending the hydrologic time series

Rechecking the characteristic flood levels of a built reservoir after extending the hydrologic time series

Emergency Disposal Solution for Control of a Giant Landslide and Dammed Lake in Yangtze River, China

Flood‐risk analysis based on a stochastic differential equation method

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