Risk Analysis for Reservoir Real-Time Optimal Operation Using the Scenario Tree-Based Stochastic Optimization Method

Abstract

The inherent uncertainty of inflow forecasts hinders the reservoir real-time optimal operation. This paper proposes a risk analysis model for reservoir real-time optimal operation using the scenario tree-based stochastic optimization method. We quantify the probability distribution of inflow forecast uncertainty by developing the relationship between two forecast accuracy metrics and the standard deviation of relative forecast error. An inflow scenario tree is generated via Monte Carlo simulation to represent the uncertain inflow forecasts. We establish a scenario tree-based stochastic optimization model to explicitly incorporate inflow forecast uncertainty into the stochastic optimization process. We develop a risk analysis model based on the principle of maximum entropy (POME) to evaluate the uncertainty propagation process from flood forecasts to optimal operation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River Basin, China. In addition, numerical experiments are carried out to investigate the effect of two different forecast accuracy metrics and different forecast accuracy levels on reservoir optimal flood control operation as well as risk analysis. The results indicate that the proposed methods can provide decision-makers with valuable risk information for guiding reservoir real-time optimal operation and enable risk-informed decisions to be made with higher reliabilities.

Joint Optimal Use of Sluices of a Group of Cascade Hydropower Stations under High-Intensity Peak Shaving and Frequency Regulation

“…The Dadu River basin [21] is the fifth largest hydropower base in China. It is the main peak shaving and frequency regulation power source for the Sichuan power grid and a key barrier for flood control in the Yangtze River Basin and surrounding area.…”

A Long-Term Operational Scheme for Hybrid Hydro-Photovoltaic (PV) Systems that Considers the Uncertainties in Reservoir Inflow and Solar Radiation Based on Scenario Trees

“…Seguin et al [16] built a short-term operation ST model for hydropower stations and proved the stability of the model can be maintained with a small amount of calculation. Sun et al [18] established a risk analysis model for real-time optimal discharge of reservoirs based on the ST stochastic optimization method, as well as a risk assessment model based on the principle of maximum entropy.…”

Predicting Discharges in Sewer Pipes Using an Integrated Long Short-Term Memory and Entropy A-TOPSIS Modeling Framework

“…A study has also shown the utility of forecasting in developing risk analysis models for the optimal operations of a reservoir to reduce flood incidents [6]. According to the International Committee for Weights and Measures, flows in wastewater pipes remain a significant challenge [7], and increased sediment deposition with limited self-cleansing has often led to the reduction of the capacity of wastewater pipes [8,9].…”