Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

Jiang, Meizhi; Lu, Jing; Yang, Zaili; Li, Jing

doi:10.1080/03088839.2020.1730010

Cited by 74 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Future investigations should be interdisciplinary, addressing not just the ecological challenges of coastal development in these regions, but also the social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in these unique contexts. Finally, studies are emerging that quantify the risks from new shipping routes and increasing traffic along the Maritime Silk Road on economic growth 42 , maritime accidents 23 , and carbon emissions 43 , yet the risks to vulnerable habitats and species have yet to be quantified and analyzed in depth. In addition to the features considered in this study, more research is needed investigating how the Maritime Silk Road may impact species’ behaviors, migration patterns, and the spread of invasive species.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a recent study 22 , researchers investigated the risks implicit in China’s overseas development finance portfolio to terrestrial biodiversity and Indigenous lands and found these risks to generally be greater than comparable projects financed by the World Bank, particularly in the energy sector. Yet while some studies have discussed the potential implications of increased shipping traffic along the Maritime Silk Road on marine systems 23, 24 or examined the proximity of BRI-affiliated ports to marine ecoregions and threatened species 25 , there remains no comprehensive, quantitative evaluation of the risks to marine socio-ecological systems across China’s diverse portfolio of overseas development finance. This gap is exceptionally concerning given that more than 27 million coastal Indigenous peoples around the world are reliant upon a healthy and functioning marine ecosystem for food and income 26 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mapping the risks of China’s global coastal development to marine socio-ecological systems

Simmons

O’Hara

Ray

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Rapid coastal development continues to jeopardize the integrity of marine socio-ecological systems. China is now the largest bilateral creditor in the world, committing nearly half a trillion US dollars to overseas development finance since 2008. Meanwhile, there are growing concerns over the impacts of this boom in Chinese development finance on marine systems. Here, we quantify the risks of coastal development projects financed by China to marine biodiversity and coastal Indigenous communities. Ports present the greatest impact risks to marine systems, in terms of both magnitude and area at risk, with power plants, roads, and other facilities presenting relatively high localized risks. Risks are most prominent in Africa and the Caribbean, with coastal Indigenous communities in Western and Central Africa particularly vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of development. All projects present some risk to threatened marine species and potential critical habitats, but few present high risks to nearby marine protected areas. Most projects present additional risks to ecosystems that are already under increasing human pressures, but some are likely to introduce new risks to relatively intact ecosystems. “Bluing” future coastal development projects in China’s overseas development finance portfolio will require more social and environmental safeguards, higher standards for host-country impact assessments, and greater integration of land-sea risk mitigation and management approaches.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the risks of China’s global coastal development to marine socio-ecological systems

Simmons

O’Hara

Ray

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Within the BN-based approach, the general BN approach has been applied in the maritime domain (Akhtar and Utne 2014;Jiang et al 2020;Wang et al 2017;Wan et al 2019). Furthermore, advanced methods have been introduced to investigate the effectiveness and potential between influential factors such as hybrid ER (Evidential Reasoning)-BN model (Yang et al 2019).…”

Section: Studies Of Methodology: Bayesian Network (Bn)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Short Sea Shipping on the West Coast of Korea: Keys to Activating the Shipping Industry in Preparation for Korea Unification Era

Lee¹,

Shin²,

Bae³

2020

Journal of International Logistics and Trade

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This study aims to analyze information on vessel traffic between the two Koreas with a probability distribution for each route/vessel type. The study will then conduct an estimate for maritime transport patterns of inter-Korean trade in the future. To analyze the flow of inter-Korean coastal shipping, this study conducted visualization analysis of shipping status between North and South Korea by year, ship type, and port using navigation data of three years from Port Logistics Information System (Port-MIS) sources during 2006 to 2008, which saw the most active exchanges between the two governments. Also, this study analyzes shipping status between the two governments as a probability distribution for each port and provides the prospects for future maritime transport for inter-Korean trade by means of Bayesian Networks and simulation. The results of the analysis are as follows: i) when North-South routes are reopened, the import volume for sand from North Korea will be increased; ii) investment in the modernization of ports in North Korea is required so that shipping companies can generate profit through economies of scale; iii) the number of the operating vessels including container ships between the two governments is expected to increase like when the tensions and conflict on the Korean Peninsula was release, especially between Busan port in South Korea and Nampo port in North Korea; and iv) among container ships, transshipment containers imported and exported through Busan Port will be shipped to North Korea by feeder transportation.

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“…Kum and Sahin (2015) applied a root cause analysis to investigate and reveal the cause of marine accidents/incidents in Arctic waters from 1993 to 2011. The BN was applied to the analysis of collision risk and accident factors in Jiang et al (2020) and . Zhang et al (2021) explored the spatial patterns and characteristics of maritime accidents on a global scale, the characteristics of global maritime accidents are found to be diverse in different regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel regional collision risk assessment method considering aggregation density under multi-ship encounter situations

et al. 2021

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The regional ship collision risk assessment for multiple ships in restricted waters is of great significance to the early warning of ship collision risk and the intelligent supervision of maritime traffic. Given the existed method of regional ship collision risk assessment without considering the impact of ship aggregation density, this paper proposes a novel regional ship collision risk assessment method that considers the aggregation density (AD) of the clusters of encounter ships (CES) for intelligent surveillance and navigation. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been examined by the experimental case study in the waters of Xiamen, China, and analysis has been compared with other existed studies to show the advantages of the new proposed algorithm. The results show that the study method can more intuitively and effectively quantify the temporal and spatial distribution of regional collision risks in the restricted sea area. The proposed method can improve the efficiency of traffic management when monitoring the ship collision risks in macroscopic view, and assist the safety of manned and unmanned ship navigation.

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Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

Abstract: The version presented here may differ from the published version or from the version of the record. Please see the repository URL above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription.

Cited by 74 publications

References 37 publications

Mapping the risks of China’s global coastal development to marine socio-ecological systems

Mapping the risks of China’s global coastal development to marine socio-ecological systems

Short Sea Shipping on the West Coast of Korea: Keys to Activating the Shipping Industry in Preparation for Korea Unification Era

A novel regional collision risk assessment method considering aggregation density under multi-ship encounter situations

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