Risk analysis of reservoir sedimentation under non‐stationary flows

Abstract

Reservoir sustainability is strongly impacted by the reservoir sedimentation processes. Most of the substantial sedimentation processes occur in non‐stationary flows such as in the case of flash floods, surges and tidal waves. However, a stationary probability assumption is normally adopted to reduce mathematical model complexity. This work develops a non‐stationary Gambler's ruin model using the Monte‐Carlo simulation method. Daily water‐level data for the Xia‐Yun station are used to predict the effective risk that the maximum capacity of the water treatment plant in the Shihmen Reservoir is reached. This non‐stationary model yields fairly accurate probabilities of sedimentation by the transitional probability of a reservoir reaching different levels of turbidity, and the average time to reach a designated reservoir maximum handling turbidity. The extended capacity of the proposed model demonstrates the major particle processes during non‐stationary flows. Such analytical results offer water resources agency to scientifically evaluate the dredging/remediation strategies with the existing reservoirs. Transport capacities of rivers and streams, and the potential consequences of flood risks in response to reservoir sedimentation can then be comprehensively estimated in order to allow effective contingency planning for public safety.

Fretful Longevity of Upper Kolab Reservoir, Odisha by GIS Study

“…More importance is stressed on the GIS technique and use of big data under a cloud platform to assess the sedimentation of 369 reservoirs in India by CWC (120 reservoirs attempted). Reservoir sustainability plays a significant role in sedimentation quantity that occurs when the flow is variable like flood passes, flash floods, storm surges, and tidal waves [23], Annual sedimentation of a reservoir can be estimated by the RS expertise after knowing the concentration of suspended particulate materials (SPM) inflowing reservoirs behind the dams and carried by floods during the lifespan of the dam and its annual approximation, [24,25]. Sediment yield from an area is mostly governed by land and soil factors.…”