Risk and Uncertainty of Losing Suitable Habitat Areas Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study for 109 Gymnosperm Species in China

Wu, Jing

doi:10.1007/s00267-020-01262-z

Cited by 14 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…However, more studies are needed to further understand the influence of climate change relative to other current threats [ 65 ], such as land-use change, using ensemble modelling techniques. Furthermore, the vulnerability and risk of habitat losses due to climate change for gymnosperm taxa in general and conifers in particular are not yet clear [ 67 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Dakhil

Halmy

Hassan

et al. 2021

Biology

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Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Dakhil

Halmy

Hassan

et al. 2021

Biology

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“…Similar to previous studies on vegetation dynamics (Pinedo‐Alvarez et al, 2019 ; Yang et al, 2019 ; Ye et al, 2021 ), we used general circulation model (GCM) predictions under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to estimate the impact of climate change on species distribution. We selected the BCC‐CSM2‐MR model, which is widely used in the Middle East Asia region and has better simulation ability for East Asian climate, especially temperature, compared to other climate models (Bingrui et al, 2022 ; Wu, 2020 ). To investigate the dynamics of the target, we used current climate normals (average for 1970–2000) and future climate projections for the 2050s (average for 2041–2060) and 2070s (average for 2061–2080), utilizing representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and concentration pathways (RCPs) for SSP2‐SSP245 (SSP245) and SSP5‐SSP585 (SSP585).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution pattern and change prediction of Phellodendron habitat in China under climate change

Zhao,

Wen,

Zhang

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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Phellodendron has always been of great significance in promoting human health and ecological restoration. However, human activities and climate change have severely affected habitat, population dynamics and sustainable use of Phellodendron. Little is known about the geographical distribution pattern and their responses to climate change of Phellodendron. In order to reveal the impact of climate change on Phellodendron, we conducted a study based on natural distribution data of two species (297 occurrence points), 20 environmental factors, and an optimized MaxEnt model. Our results identified the main environmental factors influencing Phellodendron, predicted their potential geographical distribution, and assessed migration trends under climate change in China. Our analysis showed that Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense have potential suitable habitats of 62.89 × 104 and 70.71 × 104 km2, respectively. Temperature and precipitation were found to play an essential role in shaping the present geographical distribution of Phellodendron populations. Based on two future climate scenarios, we forecasted that the potential suitable habitat of Ph. amurense would decrease by 12.52% (SSP245) and increase by 25.28% (SSP585), while Ph. chinense would decline by 19.61% (SSP245) and 15.78% (SSP585) in the late‐21st century. The potential suitable habitats of Ph. amurense and Ph. chinense would shift to northward and westward, respectively. Hydrothermal change was found to be the primary driver of the suitable habitat of Phellodendron populations in the future. We recommend establishing nature reserves for existing Phellodendron populations, especially Ph. chinense. Our study provided a practical framework for the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Phellodendron species and guided regional cultivation, long‐term conservation, and sustainable use.

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“…Almost one third (69 species) of China's total 195 gymnosperms are threatened, according to Xie et al [10], while 29 species of gymnosperms on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau are designated as vulnerable, near threatened, or endangered (Table 1 and Figure 3S). Wu [79] found that 41% of species will be at risk of extinction due to climate change after examining the uncertainty and risk of habitat loss for 109 gymnosperms in China. For example, Ginkgo biloba, Picea likiangensis var.…”

Section: Gymnosperms' Conservational Aspects Along Altitudinal Gradientsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution Patterns of Gymnosperm Species along Elevations on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: Effects of Climatic Seasonality, Energy–Water, and Physical Tolerance Variables

Umair,

Hu,

Cheng

et al. 2023

Plants

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Climate change is one of the most prominent factors influencing the spatial distribution of plants in China, including gymnosperms. Climatic factors influence gymnosperm distribution along elevational gradients on the Qinghai–Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QTP), and understanding how species adapt to these factors is important for identifying the impacts of global climate change. For the first time, we examined the county-level distribution of gymnosperm species on QTP using data from field surveys, published works, monographs, and internet sources. We used simulated distribution data of gymnosperms (N = 79) along the elevational gradients to investigate the overall impact of environmental variables in explaining the richness pattern of gymnosperms. Eighteen environmental variables were classified into three key variable sets (climatic seasonality, energy–water, and physical tolerance). We employed principal component analysis and generalized linear models to assess the impact of climatic variables on the gymnosperm’s richness pattern. Gymnosperm species are unevenly distributed across the plateau and decline gradually from the southeast to the northwest. The altitudinal gradients have a unimodal relationship with the richness of gymnosperms, with the maximum species richness at an elevation of 3200 m. The joint effects of physical tolerance and energy–water predictors have explained the highest diversity of gymnosperms at mid-elevation. Because the richness peak correlates significantly with the wettest month’s precipitation and moisture index, this confirms the significance of moisture on gymnosperm distributions due to increased precipitation during the wet season. Furthermore, our results provide evidence that climatic seasonality factors are involved in the decline of gymnosperm richness at high elevations. A total of 37% of gymnosperm species on QTP are listed as vulnerable, nearly threatened, or endangered, with elevations ranging from 600 m to 5300 m. As a result, we conclude that gymnosperms are at high risk of extinction because of the current climate fluctuations caused by global climate change. Our research offers fundamental data for the study and protection of gymnosperm species along the steepest elevation gradients.

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Risk and Uncertainty of Losing Suitable Habitat Areas Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study for 109 Gymnosperm Species in China

Cited by 14 publications

References 66 publications

Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Distribution pattern and change prediction of Phellodendron habitat in China under climate change

Distribution Patterns of Gymnosperm Species along Elevations on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau: Effects of Climatic Seasonality, Energy–Water, and Physical Tolerance Variables

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