Risk and vulnerability games. The anti-satellite weaponry (ASAT)

Gheorghe, Adrian V.; Vamanu, Dan V.

doi:10.1504/ijcis.2007.014120

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…While the public imagination is overcome with the idea of high-tech, antisatellite weaponry, such as lasers and interceptors fired from fighter planes, the truth is that ASAT capabilities are within the grasp of non-state actors of low sophistication and resources. As Gheorghe and Vamanu (2007) noted, an assailant with a laptop can make what he wants of a satellite, including veer it off course or compromise its functioning in some other way. The cost-to-benefit ratio of cyberattacks is very much in favor of the attacker, who requires only a skilled individual with basic equipment and an Internet connection.…”

Section: Deliberate Threatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They are subject not only to manifestations of specific space phenomena, such as space weather and orbital debris impact, but also to the general harshness of their environment, in which temperatures, radiation, and other normal factors generate a high probability of spontaneous malfunction. At the same time, there are deliberate threats to space systems, facilitated by specific weaknesses and by an evolving international landscape of space actors, including not just rational states, but also rogue states and non-state actors with various levels of access to increasingly facile antisatellite weaponry (Gheorghe and Vamanu 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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New Dimensions for a Challenging Security Environment: Growing Exposure to Critical Space Infrastructure Disruption Risk

Gheorghe

Georgescu

Bucovețchi

et al. 2018

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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Space systems have become a key enabler for a wide variety of applications that are vital to the functioning of advanced societies. The trend is one of quantitative and qualitative increase of this dependence, so much so that space systems have been described as a new example of critical infrastructure. This article argues that the existence of critical space infrastructures implies the emergence of a new category of disasters related to disruption risks. We inventory those risks and make policy recommendations for what is, ultimately, a resilience governance issue.

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Section: Deliberate Threatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Dimensions for a Challenging Security Environment: Growing Exposure to Critical Space Infrastructure Disruption Risk

Gheorghe

Georgescu

Bucovețchi

et al. 2018

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

Self Cite

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“…But the various accords and treaties are only valid until the first state breaks them and upends the entire strategic equilibrium. Meanwhile, legitimate technological capabilities, including for security and defense, are being developed which are innately dual use and can be repurposed for offensive actions as well [10]. Technological stasis is not an option, only a continuous diplomatic rapprochement that makes clear the risks of a confrontation in space and ensures that dialogue continues to defuse potential threats to the general peace of the "orbital commons" before they manifest to everyone's detriment.…”

Section: The Strategic Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deliberate Threats to Critical Space Infrastructure - Asat and the Strategic Context

Georgescu¹

2016

SBNA

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Space systems are critical enablers of a wide range of applications utilized by a global range of consumers. The provision of critical space services is vulnerable to, among other things, deliberate interruptions through anti-satellite weaponry and means. The intrinsic characteristics of space systems make them both very efficient and very hard to replace, such as limited weight, the high cost of replacement and the low number of assets. Deliberate human threats to space critical infrastructures are many, varied and highly efficient, stemming also from legitimate technologies for protection that can be modified to become efficient anti-satellite weapons. In addition to the technical details, a few issues stand out. The first is that deliberately targeting satellites lends itself to a form of MAD logic (mutually assured destruction), which limits the willingness of states to do it for fear of reprisal or being themselves affected, due to interdependencies. The second is that certain forms of anti-satellite weaponry have become accessible to non-state actors, who do not respond to traditional deterrence and for whom jamming, cyber-attacks and other forms of weaponry are cost effective and efficient means of incurring huge damage with no immediate loss of life (which is an important political consideration). The third is that vulnerability also extends to military users, whose systems should, theoretically, be better shielded, more resilient and afforded more redundancy. In practice, those systems are not enough and, in the case of the US, more than 90% of military communications are routed through civilian systems. This has given rise to interesting new approaches and insights towards US vulnerability, highlighted by a number of high profile military exercises. Now, the US military speaks of "fog of electrons", space as an Achilles' heel, critical dependence of drones and smart weaponry on space infrastructures, the equalizing effect of space system targeting on American military superiority etc. These trends are also important for other countries to note.

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“…Even rogue nations with rudimentary ASAT capabilities are a threat. This was explored in a gaming exercise by Gheorghe and Vamanu (2007), who showed that publically available software and satellite orbital information could be used to calculate the proper intercept course to result in an ASATbased satellite kill. They concluded that space should be viewed as a readily-vulnerable critical infrastructure.…”

Section: Valuable Satellite Orbitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Space Infrastructure Vulnerability Cadastre: Orbital Debris Critical Loads

Gheorghe

Yuchnovicz

2015

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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Orbital debris from over 50 years of human activity in space are threatening the operations of existing and future satellites and the sustainability of high-value satellite orbits. This technical memorandum calls for the development of a cadastre that depicts the vulnerability of critical satellite orbits to accumulating orbital debris. A space infrastructure vulnerability cadastre could serve as a governance tool for use by developers and operators of critical space infrastructures to better communicate the current and future vulnerability of high-value orbits to the accumulation of orbital debris. These high-value orbits are susceptible to ''loss'' for decades or centuries if generation of orbital debris continues unabated. The concept of environmental critical loads is applied to heavily used orbits as a way to indicate acceptable debris density for satellite operations, and when debris density / risk thresholds approach unacceptable levels that reduce the probability of sustaining spacecraft operations in those orbits.

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Risk and vulnerability games. The anti-satellite weaponry (ASAT)

Cited by 7 publications

References 0 publications

New Dimensions for a Challenging Security Environment: Growing Exposure to Critical Space Infrastructure Disruption Risk

New Dimensions for a Challenging Security Environment: Growing Exposure to Critical Space Infrastructure Disruption Risk

Deliberate Threats to Critical Space Infrastructure - Asat and the Strategic Context

The Space Infrastructure Vulnerability Cadastre: Orbital Debris Critical Loads

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