Risk assessment and integrated surveillance of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Russia based on Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock worldwide. Russia is a big agricultural country with a wide geographical area where FMD outbreaks have become an obstacle for the development of the animal and animal products trade. In this study, we aimed to assess the export risk of FMD from Russia. Results After simulation by Monte Carlo, the results showed that the probability of cattle infected with FMD in the surveillance zone (Surrounding the areas where no epidemic disease has occurred within the prescribed time limit, the construction of buffer areas is called surveillance zone.) of Russia was 1.29 × 10− 6. The probability that at least one FMD positive case was exported from Russia per year in the surveillance zone was 6 %. The predicted number of positive cattle of the 39,530 - 50,576 exported from Russia per year was 0.06. A key node in the impact model was the probability of occurrence of FMD outbreaks in the Russian surveillance zone. By semi-quantitative model calculation, the risk probability of FMD defense system defects was 1.84 × 10− 5, indicating that there was a potential risk in the prevention and control measures of FMD in Russia. The spatial time scan model found that the most likely FMD cluster (P < 0.01) was in the Eastern and Siberian Central regions. Conclusions There was a risk of FMDV among cattle exported from Russia, and the infection rate of cattle in the monitored area was the key factor. Understanding the export risk of FMD in Russia and relevant epidemic prevention measures will help policymakers to develop targeted surveillance plans.

The prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease in Asia

“…They have become a hindrance in the trade of animal products and animals. In a study, it was concluded that the exported cattle of Russian origin have the risk of FMDV because of the presence of the infection in the region (66). In a study conducted on the prevalence of FMD in the last decade, it was reported that in Primosky Krai, the highest morbidity was seen in pigs, while in Amur Oblast, it was in cattle.…”

Risk Assessment and Response Strategy for Pig Epidemics in China

“…[1]. In terms of assessment methods, many research methods, such as Monte Carlo simulation, the entropy method, fuzzy integrated evaluation, semiquantitative risk assessment techniques, entity-relationship models, and the construction of risk assessment index systems, have been explored and proposed [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Moreover, Vos et al compared and analyzed several generic risk assessment tools for animal disease transmission [9].…”

Foot and mouth disease: risk factors and control measures (review)

“…В настоящее время ящур ликвидирован во многих странах, и ведется строгий контроль для предотвращения повторного заноса болезни в свободные от ящура регионы [7]. Страны, эндемичные по ящуру, имеют очень ограниченный экспортный рынок продуктов животноводства.…”

“…Риск заноса ящура и меры его снижения. Вероятность завоза ящура из другой страны или региона определяется наличием в этом регионе хотя бы одного положительного случая в год [7]. Ключевые факторы риска заноса вируса -введение в стадо нового животного с неизвестным статусом вакцинации от ящура, сезонность, отсутствие вакцинации, размер стада.…”