Risk Assessment for Marine Traffic Accident in the Strait of Istanbul

Abstract

The trafflc condition in thc Strait of Istanbul has navigational diHiculties because of the geographicaI restriction and the traf 五c congestion ． The recent statistics dicate that皿 価 皿 e traff7ic has been increasing and volume of tanker tra 岱 c is anticipated becoming double in coming year and 重 riple by 2010 due to the increase of transportation of the Caspian O 且． On lhe olher hand ， 出e navigational rule in 血 e Strait of IstanbUl has been changed twice in 1982 and l994 to prove 血 e naVigational safety ． So that ， the重 erms fer 旧1ysis were divided 血to 血 ee periods ； from 1965 tO 1982 ， 丘om 1982 to 1994 and 仕 om l994 to present ． Marine accidents oceurred in tho strait were analyzed fbr three pariodS ． The inerease of 出 e marine accidentS occurred in the strait was arkable 洫 spite ofthe 血 provement ofnaVigational rule in the strait ．

A Study on Local Traffic Management to Improve Marine Traffic Safety in the Istanbul Strait

“…Generating points of ships are considered to be Gaussian distribution on a gate line orthogonal to the designed standard route, and ships are designed to navigate along the standard route as it is indicated in previous empirical work (Yurtoren and Inoue, 2004).…”

“…Collision probabilities for the Istanbul Strait are almost twice as high as Korean waterways when compared with data from 1999 to 2004 (Aydogdu et al, 2008). The southern entrance of the Istanbul Strait is considered to be a high risk area due to ship handling difficulties (Inoue and Yurtoren, 2004). On the basis of these facts and in a further study (Akten, 2004), the Istanbul Strait is considered to be a very difficult region for navigational aspects and ship handling difficulties.…”