Risk Assessment of Aircraft’s Lateral Veer-off the Runway Surface during Landing

Abstract

This article presents a methodology to determine the risk of aircrafts lateral runway excursion during landing via mathematical risk modeling. In addition, the methodology is demonstrated by means of detailed calculation of the lateral runway excursion risk value during the landing of the aircraft Airbus A310-200, in view of the maximum landing weight and the appropriate range of landing velocities according to the International Civil Aviation Organization specification. Obviously, the calculation demonstrates that the developed math solutions and equations presented herein are powerful tools to evaluate the risk of lateral runway excursion of the majority of aircrafts and for any airport. The method is also applicable to assess the residual level of risk at any specific airport and its deviation compared to the recommended safety level. Consequently, the presented mathematical solutions to determine the risk rate of lateral runway excursion during landing offers airports' operational and safety management departments a viable tool so that appropriate measurements could be adopted. Finally, it is a methodology not only to assess the risk but also to determine the appropriate runway width.