Risk assessment of construction projects in China under traditional and industrial production modes

Abstract

Purpose High risk is one of the most prominent characteristics of the Chinese construction industry, and it poses a significant threat to construction projects. Owing to initiatives aimed at achieving high efficiency, low carbon emissions, etc., industrialization of the construction industry has become an inevitable trend in China. However, it remains to be discussed whether industrialization of construction can reduce the risks entailed in construction projects compared with traditional construction. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach Based on the theory of risk life cycle, this paper proposes a practical risk assessment technique to assess the risk life cycle, including the risk occurrence time and potential financial losses. This technique is then applied to assess the differences between the risks involved in an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) project executed via traditional and industrial production modes. Findings The results show that the total duration of risks in the industrial construction project is half of that in the traditional project. In addition, the expected financial loss entailed in the industrial construction project is 29 percent lower than that in the traditional construction project. Therefore, industrial construction has the potential to optimize risk performance. Originality/value There is no significant difference between the traditional and industrial construction models in terms of probability of risk. The maximum total loss might occur in the procurement stage in the case of industrial production, and in the construction stage in the case of traditional production. Moreover, the total expected loss from risk in the EPC project in the industrial production mode is only half of that in the traditional production route. This study is expected to provide a new risk evaluation technique and promote an understanding of the life cycle of risk management in the construction industry.

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