Risk assessment of organ transplant operation: A fuzzy hybrid MCDM approach based on fuzzy FMEA

Abstract

Nowadays, most fatal diseases are attributed to the malfunction of bodily. Sometimes organ transplantation is the only possible therapy, for instance for patients with end-stage liver diseases, and the preferred treatment, for instance for patients with end-stage renal diseases. However, this surgical procedure comes with inherent risks and effectively managing these risks to minimize the likelihood of complications arising from organ transplantation (maximizing life years from transplant and quality-adjusted life years) is crucial. To facilitate this process, risk ranking is used to identify and promptly address potential risks. Over recent years, considerable efforts have been made, and various approaches have been proposed to enhance Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA). In this study, taking into account the uncertainty in linguistic variables (F-FMEA), we introduce an approach based on Fuzzy Multi Criteria Decision Making (F-MCDM) for effectively evaluating scenarios and initial failure hazards. Nevertheless, the results of ranking failure modes generated by different MCDM methods may vary. This study is a retrospective study that suggests a comprehensive unified risk assessment model, integrating multiple techniques to produce a more inclusive ranking of failure modes. Exploring a broad spectrum of risks associated with organ transplant operations, we identified 20 principal hazards with the assistance of literature and experts. We developed a questionnaire to examine the impact of various critical factors on the survival of transplanted organs, such as irregularities in immunosuppressive drug consumption, inappropriate dietary habits, psychological disorders, engaging in strenuous activities post-transplant, neglecting quarantine regulations, and other design-related factors. Subsequently, we analyzed the severity of their effects on the durability of transplanted organs. Utilizing the Mamdani algorithm as a fuzzy inference engine and the Center of Gravity algorithm for tooling, we expressed the probability and severity of each risk. Finally, the failure mode ranking obtained from the F-FMEA method, three fuzzy MCDM methods, and the proposed combined method were identified. Additionally, the results obtained from various methods were evaluated by an expert team, demonstrating that the highest consistency and effectiveness among different methods are attributed to the proposed method, as it achieved a 91.67% agreement with expert opinions.