Risk assessment of poverty-returning based on hybrid q-rung orthopair fuzzy EDAS and prospect theory

Abstract

PurposeAccurately identifying the risk of poverty-returning is a complex and critical challenge in current poverty alleviation efforts. However, there is currently no study on evaluation methods for the risk of poverty-returning. This study aims to establish a robust and systematic approach for an evaluation framework for the risk of poverty-returning.Design/methodology/approachBased on relevant assessment criteria, a maximum deviation method was established to identify the weights of the indicators. A complex evaluation methodology using prospect theory (PT), a q-rung orthopair fuzzy set (QrOFS) and evaluation relying on distance from average solution [EDAS] (QrOFS-PT-EDAS) was developed to evaluate the poverty-returning risks. Some policy recommendations to reduce the risk of poverty-returning have also been put forward.FindingsHis study identifies the risk factors of poverty relapse from nine aspects, including natural disasters, accidents and policy-driven poverty relapse. In addressing the evaluation challenge arising from uncertain decision-making, the QrOFS aligns more with people’s thinking habits and expression methods in complex environments. The proposed hybrid evaluation framework accurately measures the poverty-returning risk, which is beneficial for the formulation of policy recommendations.Originality/valueA scientific and comprehensive assessment system index for poverty-returning is constructed. A hybrid QrOFS-PT-EDAS framework is presented to make the evaluation results more scientific and objective. Several strategic recommendations for reducing the poverty-returning risk are presented. This study offers a novel framework for assessing poverty-returning issues that can be extended to many other areas.