Risk Assessment of Snow Disasters for Animal Husbandry on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Influences of Snow Disasters on the Well-Being of Farmers and Pastoralists

Abstract

In the context of global warming, meteorological disasters occur more frequently in various regions which exert increasing influences on human life. Snow disasters are some of the natural disasters that most seriously affect the development of husbandry on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), so it is necessary to explore their spatio-temporal variations and perform comprehensive risk assessment. Based on the daily snow depth data set in China, obtained by inversion of satellite remote sensing data, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of snow disasters on the QTP from 1980 to 2019 were studied. The regional difference in the comprehensive risks of snow disasters for the husbandry on the QTP was evaluated from four perspectives, i.e., the risk of hazard factors, sensitivity of hazard-inducing environments, vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. The farmer and pastoralist well-being (FPWB) index in five typical regions was constructed to discuss the possible influences of snow disasters on the FPWB since the 21st century. Results show that, in the last 40 years, the frequency, duration, average snow depth, and grade of snow disasters on the QTP all exhibited significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities, and they also displayed a declining long-term trend. The comprehensive risk of snow disasters for the husbandry on the QTP is low in the north while high in the south. The high-risk zone accounts for 1.54% of the total and is mainly located in Kashgar City in the north-western end of the QTP; the sub-high-risk and medium-risk zones are mainly found in the south of the plateau and are distributed in a tripole pattern, separately covering 15.96% and 16.32% of the total area of the plateau; the north of the plateau mainly belongs to low-risk and sub-low-risk zones, which separately account for 43.06% and 23.12% of the total area of the plateau. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the FPWB in five typical regions, namely, Kashgar (I), Shigatse (II), Nagqu (III), Qamdo (IV), and Yushu (V), has been increasing, while the risk of snow disasters has gradually decreased. Every 1% decrease in the risk of snow disasters corresponded to 0.186%, 0.768%, 0.378%, 0.109%, and 0.03% increases in the FPWB index in the five regions. Snow disasters affect FPWB mainly by directly or indirectly damaging material resources (livestock inventories and meat production) and social and financial resources.

Snow Disaster Hazard Assessment on the Tibetan Plateau Based on Copula Function

“…The western part of the Himalayas is the second highest risk zone, while the risks in the southeastern edge of the Qaidam Basin are relatively lower. These findings are in agreement with previous research results [5,10,14,53,54]. Apart from the direct impact of local climatic conditions [55], factors such as atmospheric circulation are also pertinent to the incidence of snow disasters in the TP.…”

“…This type of disaster is a result of low temperatures and persistent snowfall during the winter and spring months. Snow blankets the plateau regions for extended periods, burying the grasslands and resulting in a significant number of livestock experiencing weight loss or death [5]. Consequently, snow disasters represent the most noteworthy meteorological catastrophe that adversely impacts the advancement of animal husbandry in the region [6].…”

Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Effects on the Climate of the Tibetan Plateau and Surrounding Regions

“…The decreasing rate gradually decreased from the marginal region to the inner area of HMA, which indicates that the marginal areas of the TP may be zones facing significant risk [7]. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of snow disasters over the TP were also evaluated [8]. The frequency, duration, average snow depth, and grade of snow disasters over the TP all depicted a declining trend in the long run.…”

“…The frequency, duration, average snow depth, and grade of snow disasters over the TP all depicted a declining trend in the long run. Using the farmer and pastoralist well-being (FPWB) index, which has a negative relation with snow disaster risk, the whole TP area was divided into five distinct regions: Kashgar (I), Shigatse (II), Nagqu (III), Qamdo (IV), and Yushu (V), with gradually decreasing risks of snow disasters [8]. According to Wu et al [9], factors such as precipitation, solar radiation, and air temperature significantly affect snow phenology.…”

Snow Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Long-Term Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Region in Xizang

“…This accumulation not only hampers ground transportation but also profoundly impacts pastoralism and agriculture in the plateau region [17,25,34]. For instance, the grazing activities of pastoralists and the cultivation efforts of farmers are influenced by the depth of snow cover, potentially resulting in the loss of herds and crops [35]. Consequently, as shown in Table 4, the information entropy value of the average snow depth is 0.9265, with the corresponding weight being the highest, at 0.39.…”