Risk Assessment of UAV Cyber Range Based on Bayesian–Nash Equilibrium

Abstract

In order to analyze the choice of the optimal strategy of cyber security attack and defense in the unmanned aerial vehicles’ (UAVs) cyber range, a game model-based UAV cyber range risk assessment method is constructed. Through the attack and defense tree model, the risk assessment method is calculated. The model of attack and defense game with incomplete information is established and the Bayesian–Nash equilibrium of mixed strategy is calculated. The model and method focus on the mutual influence of the actions of both sides and the dynamic change in the confrontation process. According to the calculation methods of different benefits of different strategies selected in the offensive and defensive game, the risk assessment and calculation of the UAV cyber range are carried out based on the probability distribution of the defender’s benefits and the attacker’s optimal strategy selection. An example is given to prove the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.