Risk Assessment of Water Inrush from Coal Seam Roof Based on the Combined Weighting of the Geographic Information System and Game Theory: A Case Study of Dananhu Coal Mine No. 7, China

Abstract

Coal mines’ water inrush is one of the five major disasters that affect the safety of coal mine production. The assessment of coal mines’ water inrush is a prerequisite for preventing and controlling coal mines’ water inrush. To objectively and effectively evaluate the risk of water inrush in the coal seam roof and overcome the shortage of single assignment methods, two methods, the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method, are used in this paper to determine each evaluation factor’s subjective and objective consequences. Game theory is applied to obtain the combined weights of each influencing factor to make up for the lack of a single assignment method. Taking the roof of Coal Seam No. 7 in mining Areas I and II of Dananhu Coal Mine No. 7 as an example, six primary evaluation indexes are created to control water inrush in the coal seam roof. The comprehensive weights of each index is determined; a vulnerability index evaluation model is established; and the results of the water inrush risk zone in the coal seam roof of Dananhu Coal Mine No. 7 are obtained using the GIS spatial analysis function. The results show that the discriminatory effects of the zoning model have a high accuracy and can provide a reference basis for future coal seam mining control work in this mine.

Local Water Inrush Risk Assessment Method Based on Moving Window and Its Application in the Liangshuijing Mining Area

“…This method addresses the aforementioned issues by introducing a probability distribution of expert scores. The Monte Carlo AHP calculation process is illustrated in Figure 4, and specific calculation steps can be found in previous publications by the authors [23,[26][27][28].…”

“…This implies that coal mining enterprises will need to implement a significant number of flood prevention and control measures, as well as allocate considerable manpower and financial resources to manage these risk areas to ensure the safe operation of the mines. Undoubtedly, this leads to the wastage of resources, which is considered unreasonable [14,15,20,23].…”

“…However, these evaluation methods share a common issue in the allocation of weights to evaluation indicators. Specifically, they assign the same weight values to evaluation indicators across all locations within the study area [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. This implies that existing evaluation methods do not account for the varying relative importance of evaluation indicators at different locations within the study area, resulting from differences in the magnitude of attribute values.…”

“…Consequently, the evaluation loses its objectivity and fairness. Additionally, the evaluation results from global models suffer from issues such as the clustering of high-risk water inrush areas, large distribution areas of risk zones, lack of specificity in delineating risk zone boundaries, and a reduction in safe zone areas to improve prediction accuracy [14,15,20,23]. The widespread distribution of risk zones implies that coal companies will have to expend significant financial and material resources to carry out water prevention and control efforts.…”