Risk Assessment of Water Saving Management Contract Based on Normal Cloud Model

Abstract

The Water Saving Management Contract (WSMC) is the novel market-oriented water-saving service model specifically designed for water conservation. It uniquely shifts the risk burden away from water users to water-saving service providers, making risk assessment a pivotal consideration for project participants in devising investment strategies. Drawing upon cloud models that reconcile qualitative and quantitative uncertainties, this paper proposes a risk assessment model for WSMC grounded in a generalized cloud model framework. Firstly, a comprehensive evaluation system integrating qualitative and quantitative indicators is established. Weights are determined using a combination weighting method based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and entropy weight method. Secondly, the standard cloud model is constructed based on standard level division. Evaluation indicators are then scored based on historical literature, expert opinions, and project-specific implementation conditions to formulate a comprehensive evaluation cloud model. Finally, through case validation, the findings are presented using cloud diagrams to confirm the model's feasibility.