Risk-based, sensor-fused detection of flooding casualties for emergency response

Abstract

The intrinsic complexity of the flooding process on ships renders accurate quantification of the flooding risk a highly arduous task, particularly in the context of emergency management, where convolution stems from a multitude of variables, their dependencies and interactions. This is especially true for large cruise vessels, with ever-growing number of passengers, innovative designs and complex internal subdivision. This augments the uncertainty and imposes further challenges on the crew in obtaining a complete overview and making fully-informed decisions following a given flooding event. This paper will present a methodology whereby sensors and analytics are combined utilising probabilistic multi-sensor data fusion to predict the flooding extent with reduced uncertainty to facilitate informed decision-making in emergencies, forming the basis for optimised implementation of emergency response measures for vessel survival and subsequent safe return to port. The framework will be tested with the use of the sensor array onboard an existing large cruise vessel within realistic flooding scenarios. The results demonstrate that the predictions are rapidly converging to the region of the actual damage extent in the presented test-cases, enabling fast and targeted deployment of available mitigation measures with the help of probabilistic supportive evidence. The accurate prediction of flooding extent as presented, is a fundamental prerequisite for, and could be of great assistance in, decision making in emergencies, thus saving lives.

Maritime operational risk management using dynamic barriers

“…• Future developments may be enhanced by incorporating probabilistic models for the consideration of waves as well as leak and collapse pressure heads, similar to Karolius (2019) and Karolius, Cichowicz and Vassalos (2020).…”

“…The parametric model for live flooding risk monitoring incorporates a range of variables including the watertight doors as safety barriers for flooding containment. The model is an adaptation of the framework presented in (Karolius, 2019;Karolius, Cichowicz and Vassalos, 2020), but with application in the operational phase of the vessel lifecycle. The model utilizes multi-sensor data fusion, where accumulated (historical) operational data (a priori) are combined with real-time sensor readings (evidence) to form a strengthened belief (posterior) of the observed risk with reduced uncertainty.…”

“…The watertight doors may also leak or collapse under the floodwater pressure, whereas the initial assumption herein is that -if a door is closed, it will provide full functionality as a floodwater boundary. Future developments may be enhanced by incorporating probabilistic models for the consideration of waves as well as leak and collapse pressure heads, similar to Karolius (2019) and Karolius, Cichowicz and Vassalos (2020).…”

The role of damaged ship dynamics in addressing the risk of flooding

“…The main developer is [Jasionowski, A (2001): PROTEUS3] with earlier key contributions by: [Konstantopoulos, (1987): PROTEUS]; [Turan, O (1992) (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)], [FLOODSTAND, (2009[FLOODSTAND, ( -2012], [GOALDS (2009[GOALDS ( -2013]; [eSAFE (2016[eSAFE ( -2018] and EMSA-sponsored research, with several Strathclyde PhD students contributing. (2001)], [Tuzku, C (2002)], [Chai, S (2004)], [Strasser, C (2009)], [Gao, Q (2012)], [Cichowicz, J (2012)], [Tsakalakis, N (2012)], [Atzampos, G (2019) and [Karolius, K (2019)].…”

A Pioneer of Maritime Safety

“…Design for Safety, Risk-Based Design, Life-Cycle Risk Management [36]- [65] Professor Vassalos FREng introduced the Design for Safety philosophy and the ensuing formalised methodology, Risk-Based Design (RBD), in the maritime industry as a design paradigm to help bestow safety as a design objective and a life-cycle imperative. This was meant to ensure that rendering safety a measurable (performance-based) design objective, through using first-principles tools, would incentivise industry to seek cost-effective safety solutions, in response to rising societal expectations.…”