Risk calculation and precautionary uncertainty: two configurations within crime assessment

Klima, Noel; Dorn, Nicholas; Beken, Tom Vander

doi:10.1007/s10611-010-9265-2

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…The controversy investigated takes place within a Nordic societal security context (Larsson and Rhinard 2020), but similar debates on probability's role in security risk assessment has taken place in other countries (Klima, Dorn, and Vander Beken 2011;Mueller and Stewart 2014) and in research on risk and security (Manunta 2002;Ezell et al 2010;Aven and Guikema 2015;Amundrud et al 2017 ).…”

Section: Securing As High Politicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment without the risk? A controversy about security and risk in Norway

Heyerdahl

2021

Journal of Risk Research

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Security and 'securing' is high on the public agenda. Questions are raised on where, to what degree and against what the government and others should introduce preventive security measures. This article investigates a controversy in Norway about the role of probability in risk assessment within security. The article asks how the question of the probability of incidents is problematized and addressed by actors involved. It discusses how the controversy can be interpreted and what it might tell us about security and risk. The article builds on an exploratory study of the reasoning of security professionals in relation to a standard on security risk assessment. It shows how the downplaying of probability is defended, but also how it creates dilemmas and is criticized. The argument against estimating probability is that it is often difficult or impossible. Probability is, however, also a moderating factor. Probability turns unlikely futures into lower risks than likely futures. Those arguing against the security risk standard point to the consequence of downplaying probability in risk estimates. A key finding is how risk assessment in areas of low tolerance for incidents introduces a discrepancy that is difficult to handle. On the one hand, security analysts are supposed to deal with threats as risks, implying scaling, comparison and level of acceptance. On the other hand, they are supposed to create security, implying the opposite of scaling and risk acceptance. Risk assessment becomes difficult if there is little appetite for taking risk. Michael Power's three ideal models of risk management logics are introduced in the discussion as heuristic tools of a sensitizing kind. The article concludes that risk research could benefit from engaging with security theory, to investigate how risk management might be shaped by security practises.

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Section: Securing As High Politicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment without the risk? A controversy about security and risk in Norway

Heyerdahl

2021

Journal of Risk Research

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“…Uncertainty, unlike risk, is not calculable through assessments. Instead, it is mobilized when minimal information is available and suspicion exists; the goal here is to identify vulnerabilities and to “think the unthinkable” ( Klima et al, 2011 , p. 24). Reflecting the precautionary logic, uncertainty increasingly displaces risk regimes, and expands both the potential for criminalization and social control by governing the anticipation of criminal activity ( Ericson, 2007 ).…”

Section: Determining Risk: Police Perceptions Decision-making and Con...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Expanding Mechanisms of Governance: Uncertainty and Risk in Police Decision-Making Strategies in the Pursuit of Specialized Peace Bonds

Ballucci

Lecoq

2021

Crime & Delinquency

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This study examines police officers’ decision-making practices through analyzing how they determine which offenders are candidates for an 810, or peace bond. This legal tool allows police officers to petition the courts for continued surveillance and conditions for offenders postrelease. Little, however, is offered in terms of assessment guidelines on how to make such determinations. As a result, police officers discretionary behaviors and additional legal factors play a key role in these determinations. Our findings advance the idea that “uncertainty” is the central object to be managed, and further complicate how risk is constructed and mobilized by suggesting that risk assessments result in over-precautionary practices.

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Temporal dimensions of vulnerability to crime in economic sectors: Theory meets evidence and spawns a new framework

Klima

2012

Risk Manag

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Risk calculation and precautionary uncertainty: two configurations within crime assessment

Cited by 4 publications

References 26 publications

Risk assessment without the risk? A controversy about security and risk in Norway

Risk assessment without the risk? A controversy about security and risk in Norway

Expanding Mechanisms of Governance: Uncertainty and Risk in Police Decision-Making Strategies in the Pursuit of Specialized Peace Bonds

Temporal dimensions of vulnerability to crime in economic sectors: Theory meets evidence and spawns a new framework

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