Risk Causal Analysis of Traffic-Intensive Waters Based on Infectious Disease Dynamics

Abstract

Accidents occur frequently in traffic-intensive waters, which restrict the safe and rapid development of the shipping industry. Due to the suddenness, randomness, and uncertainty of accidents in traffic-intensive waters, the probability of the risk factors causing traffic accidents is usually high. Thus, properly analyzing those key risk factors is of great significance to improve the safety of shipping. Based on the analysis of influencing factors of ship navigational risks in traffic-intensive waters, this paper proposes a cloud model to excavate the factors affecting navigational risk, which could accurately screen out the key risk factors. Furthermore, the risk causal model of ship navigation in traffic-intensive waters is constructed by using the infectious disease dynamics method in order to model the key risk causal transmission process. Moreover, an empirical study of the Yangtze River estuary is conducted to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed models. The research results show that the cloud model is useful in screening the key risk factors, and the constructed causal model of ship navigational risks in traffic-intensive waters is able to provide accurate analysis of the transmission process of key risk factors, which can be used to reduce the navigational risk of ships in traffic-intensive waters. This research provides both theoretical basis and practical reference for regulators in the risk management and control of ships in traffic-intensive waters.

Shipping Accident Analysis in Restricted Waters: Lesson from the Suez Canal Blockage in 2021

“…A BN model was constructed by domain experts and the Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) were developed from historical data, to model the collision consequences in downstream of the Yangtze River (Wu et al, 2020). The risk causal model in traffic-intensive waters was constructed to reveal the key risk causal transmission process (Chen et al, 2019). A fuzzy DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method was used to emphasise that human errors and weaknesses in organisational factors are primarily responsible for accidents in enclosed spaces (Soner, 2021).…”

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“…This parameter is usually referred to encounter rate. The number of encounters are usually very frequent in some traffic intensive waters [15]- [17]. PC is the probability of failure of collision avoidance actions when two ships are approaching each other.…”

Navigational risk analysis based on GIS spatiotemporal trajectory mining: a case study in Nanjing Yangtze River Bridge waters

“…Therefore, great effort is required to prevent accidents and improve navigational safety and traffic efficiency. A deep insight into the navigational risks is of great importance for authorities to understand the influence of navigation environment on vessels and uncover the potential threats to navigation (Chen et al 2019b ).…”