Risk Evaluation Model of Life Loss Caused by Dam-Break Flood and Its Application

Despite the fact that the Bayesian network has great advantages in logical reasoning and calculation compared with the other traditional risk analysis methods, there are still obvious shortcomings in the study of dynamic risk. The risk factors of the earth-rock dam breach are complex, which vary with time during the operation period. Static risk analysis, limited to a specific period of time, cannot meet the needs of comprehensive assessment and early warning. By introducing time factors, a dynamic Bayesian network model was established to study the dynamic characteristics of dam-breach probability. Combined with the calculation of the conditional probability of nodes based on the Leaky Noisy-Or gate extended model, the reasoning results of Bayesian networks were modified by updating the data of different time nodes. Taking an earth-rock dam as an example, the results show that it has less possibility to breach and keep stable along the time axis. Moreover, the factors with vulnerability and instability were found effective, which could provide guidance for dam risk management.

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Breach Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

Wang

et al. 2019

“…It is difficult to scientifically sort and analyze all of the factors that affect the social impact of a dam break due to their transient and complex behaviors. Therefore, this study relies on work by previous scholar's research [58] and concentrates on the social impact characteristics and dam break behavior [7,20,21,24,59]. A set of representative indicators can be obtained by analysis and sorting according to the principles of combining science, typicality, practicality, and qualitive and quantitative data.…”

Section: Loss Of Human Life and Property Damage To Residential And Bamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Historically, most attention has been given to the loss of life and economic costs associated with dam breaks [6][7][8][9]; however, there is increasing awareness of the need for environmental protections, which includes the potential effects of dam breaks [10,11]. The concern of all parties regarding the effects of dam breaks is called the social impact.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Dam Break Social Impact Assessments Based on an Improved Variable Fuzzy Set Model

He¹,

Jaturapitakkul²,

Qin³

et al. 2020

In recent years attention has shifted from “dam safety” to “dam risk” due to the high loss characteristics of dam breaks. Despite this, there has been little research on social impact assessments. Variable fuzzy sets (VFSs) are a theoretical system for dealing with uncertainty that are used in many industries. However, the relative membership degree (RMD) calculations required for VFSs are complicated and data can be overlooked. Furthermore, the RMD is highly subjective when dealing with qualitative problems, which can seriously affect the accuracy of the results. This study introduces grey system theory (GST) which analyzes the RMD characteristics to improve traditional VFSs. A new method for calculating the social impact of a dam break is proposed based on the correlation between the core parameters of the two theories. The Liujiatai Reservoir is used as a test case and the new and traditional evaluation methods are compared. The results show that the proposed method has advantages when dealing with uncertainty that are consistent with the characteristics of the problems associated with dam break social impact assessments. Moreover, the evaluation results obtained using the proposed method are consistent with, or more accurate than, those obtained using the traditional method.

“…However, because of the storage of water and inundation, huge potential energy is generated and has a great threat to the downstream [1]. Dam breach produces a large number of destructive floods and results in losses of life (LOLs) and economy [2][3][4]. Despite the increasing safety of dams due to improved engineering knowledge and better construction quality, a full non-risk guarantee is not possible and an accident can occur, triggered by natural hazards, human actions, or loss of strength capacity of the dam due to its age [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Method for Fast Evaluation of Potential Consequences of Dam Breach

Jiao

Sun

et al. 2019

Self Cite

Dam breach has catastrophic consequences for human lives and economy. In previous studies, empirical models are often, to a limited extent, due to the inadequacy of historical dam breach events. Physical models, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods, are not suitable for fast analysis of a large number of dams due to the complexities of many key parameters. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for fast evaluation of potential consequences of dam breach. Eight main indices, i.e., capacity of reservoir (C R ), dam height (H D ), population at risk (P R ), economy at risk (E R ), understanding of dam breach (U B ), industry type (T I ), warning time (T W ), and building vulnerability (V B ), are selected to establish an evaluation index system. A catastrophe evaluation method is introduced to establish an evaluation model for potential consequences of dam breach based on the indices which are divided into five grades according to the relevant standards and guidelines. Validation of the method by twelve historical dam breach events shows a good accuracy. The method is applied to evaluate potential consequences of dam breach of Jiangang Reservoir in Henan Province, China. It is estimated that loss of life in the worst scenario is between that of Hengjiang Reservoir and that of Shimantan Reservoir dam breach, of which fatalities are 941 and 2717, respectively, showing that risk management measures should be taken to reduce the risk of potential loss of life.August 2018. Consequently, the risk consequences of dam breach have always attracted the attention of researchers.Originally, empirical models, which are based on historical events, were established to evaluate consequences of dam breach. Brown and Graham (1988) provided a conceptual model of variables influencing the LOL from dam failure and a method for predicting LOL based on the size of the population at risk (P R ) from failure and the amount of warning time (T W ) available for that population [7]. DeKay and McClelland (1993) proposed an expression for LOL in terms of warning time (T W ) and population at risk (P R ). The forcefulness of the floods was derived from the historical records of dam breach and flash flood cases via logistic regression [8]. These studies are often, to a limited extent, based on empirical data of historical flood events, most of which are of low availability, resulting in low accuracy in most applications.Thereafter, multiple physical models were established, which focus on simulating human behavior during floods. Assaf and Hartford (2002) developed a virtual reality approach (BC Hydro's Life Safety Model (LSM)) to deal with the problems of failure consequence analysis and emergency planning that are not amenable to resolution through existing analysis techniques, which is undergoing continued development [9]. Aboelata and Bowles (2008) demonstrated the deterministic uncertainty modes of calculation model of LOL named LIFESim, which was sponsored by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Australian National...