Background
Benign anastomotic stricture remains among the most prevalent complications following surgery for colorectal cancer, albeit its incidence is very low.
Objective
This study is aimed at identifying risk factors of anastomotic stricture as well as generating an effective nomogram for the stricture.
Design:
This is a retrospective study.
Setting:
This study was conducted from January, 2015 to December, 2019 in a single tertiary center with colorectal cancer.
Patients:
A total of 117 colorectal patients after surgery without recurrence including 39 with anastomotic stricture (the distance between anastomotic site and anal margin < = 20 cm) and 78 without the stricture were enrolled in this study.
Main outcome measures:
Their clinical and pathological data were collected. Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted for identifying risk factors for anastomotic stricture, and the nomogram prediction model was generated.
Results
Multivariate analysis of the primary cohort led to identification of LCA (left colon artery) preservation (OR, 0.074; P = 0.0015), protective stoma (OR, 5.353; P = 0.012), anastomotic leakage (OR, 12.027; P = 0.005), and anastomotic distance (OR, 7.578; P = 0.012) as independent risk factors for anastomotic stricture. The following predictive model was derived: Logit (anastomotic stricture) = 0.074* LCA + 5.353* Protective stoma + 12.027* Anastomotic leakage + 7.578* Anastomotic distance. Assessment of the predictive model revealed that the area under curve (AUC) was 0.871, while the cutoff value was 15.444, with a sensitivity of 64.1% and a specificity of 94.8%.
Limitations:
A retrospective and case-controlled design with a small sample size from one single center is the main Limitation.
Conclusions
LCA preservation, protective stoma, anastomotic leakage, and anastomotic distance may affect the occurrence of anastomotic stricture following surgery for colorectal cancer. The nomogram model generated in the present study can be valuable in prediction of anastomotic stricture. Registered at Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (http://www.chictr.org.cn, ChiCTR 2100043775).