Objective-To predict individual-specific risk of uterine rupture during an attempted vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC).Methods-Women with one prior low-transverse cesarean delivery who underwent a trial of labor with a term singleton were identified in a multi-center concurrently collected database of deliveries occurring during a four-year period. We analyzed different techniques to develop an accurate prediction model for uterine rupture.Results-Of the 11,855 women analyzed, 83 (0.7%) had a uterine rupture. The optimal model, based on a logistic regression,included: any prior vaginal delivery (OR 0.44, and labor induction(OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.11 -2.69). This model, with a c-statistic of .627, had poor discriminating ability and does not allow the determination of a clinically useful estimate of the probability of uterine rupture for an individual patient.Conclusion-Patient-specific factors cannot be used to accurately predict the relatively small proportion of women who will incur a uterine rupture during an attempted VBAC after 36 weeks of gestatation.Condensation-Factors available before or at admission for delivery cannot be used to accurately predict uterine rupture during an attempted vaginal birth after cesarean. Keywords prediction; uterine rupture; vaginal birth after cesarean Even though uterine rupture during an attempted vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) occurs infrequently, the potential ramifications, such as hysterectomy and neonatal neurodevelopmental disability or death, are of great clinical significance. 1 Correspondingly, when pregnant women with a prior cesarean delivery are confronted with the decision of whether to attempt a trial of labor (TOL), the possibility of a uterine rupture is particularly relevant to their decision-making process. In an effort to aid this process, investigators have studied the different factors that are associated with the occurrence of uterine rupture. 2-5The identification of factors associated with uterine rupture may allow physicians to provide general guidance to a woman regarding her chance of uterine rupture during a TOL. However, even though certain factors may be associated with uterine rupture, it does not necessarily follow that those associations can be combined to allow accurate prediction of the probability of a uterine rupture for an individual woman. The development of such a prediction model could further aid women and their caregivers in counseling regarding the decision to attempt a VBAC.Macones et al attempted to develop a model for the prediction of uterine rupture, but were unable to construct an accurate one. 6 We have recently demonstrated a methodological technique for developing a graphical nomogram that can be used to accurately predict the probability of another important component of the decision to undergo a TOL, namely, the chance of achieving a vaginal delivery. 7 We hypothesized that this technique also could allow the development of an accurate prediction model for uterine rupture. In this study, we have investigated t...