Risk Factors for Crop Health Under Global Change and Agricultural Shifts: A Framework of Analyses Using Rice in Tropical and Subtropical Asia as a Model

Abstract

Plant disease epidemiology requires expansion of its current methodological and theoretical underpinnings in order to produce full contributions to global food security and global changes. Here, we outline a framework which we applied to farmers' field survey data set on rice diseases in the tropical and subtropical lowlands of Asia. Crop health risks arise from individual diseases, as well as their combinations in syndromes. Four key drivers of agricultural change were examined: labor, water, fertilizer, and land availability that translate into crop establishment method, water shortage, fertilizer input, and fallow period duration, respectively, as well as their combinations in production situations. Various statistical approaches, within a hierarchical structure, proceeding from higher levels of hierarchy (production situations and disease syndromes) to lower ones (individual components of production situations and individual diseases) were used. These analyses showed that (i) production situations, as wholes, represent very large risk factors (positive or negative) for occurrence of disease syndromes; (ii) production situations are strong risk factors for individual diseases; (iii) drivers of agricultural change represent strong risk factors of disease syndromes; and (iv) drivers of change, taken individually, represent small but significant risk factors for individual diseases. The latter analysis indicates that different diseases are positively or negatively associated with shifts in these drivers. We also report scenario analyses, in which drivers of agricultural change are varied in response to possible climate and global changes, generating predictions of shifts in rice health risks. The overall set of analyses emphasizes the need for large-scale ground data to define research priorities for plant protection in rapidly evolving contexts. They illustrate how a structured theoretical framework can be used to analyze emergent features of agronomic and socioecological systems. We suggest that the concept of "disease syndrome" can be borrowed in botanical epidemiology from public health to emphasize a holistic view of disease in shifting production situations in combination with the conventional, individual disease-centered perspective.

Rice phenylalanine ammonia-lyase gene OsPAL4 is associated with broad spectrum disease resistance

“…Much of the world depends on rice (Oryza sativa) as a primary food source, but sustaining this high demand can be challenging for growers because rice yields can be reduced on an average of 37 % due to the effects of pathogens and pests (Savary et al 2011). Thus, understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying rice disease resistance is critical to maintain high production levels.…”

Association of Spring Pruning Practices with Severity of Powdery Mildew and Downy Mildew on Hop

“…A savings of at least one fungicide application per year appears achievable when spring pruning is conducted thoroughly and slightly delayed compared with growers' current practices.Cultural disease management practices are actions that involve the manipulation of the plant, its components, crop refuse, and the environment to reduce or prevent disease (5,26,31,34). Plant Dis.…”

“…Cultural disease management practices are actions that involve the manipulation of the plant, its components, crop refuse, and the environment to reduce or prevent disease (5,26,31,34). In hop (Humulus lupulus L.), cultural practices are an important component of integrated management of the two most important foliar diseases of this crop: downy mildew, caused by Pseudoperonospora humuli; and powdery mildew, caused by Podosphaera macularis (21,22,27,29).…”

Assessment of Trichogramma japonicum and T. chilonis as Potential Biological Control Agents of Yellow Stem Borer in Rice

“…Rice ( Oryza sativa L.) is the most important crop in the world [1] and plays a central part in Asian food security [2]. This crop is widely distributed especially in Southern parts of China [3] where rice accounts for 88.7% of the total agricultural acreage [3].…”