Objective. To quantify the relative contribution of work-related physical and psychosocial factors, individual factors, and health-related factors to the development of more severe musculoskeletal pain in the neck and upper limbs and the back and lower limbs.Methods. In this cohort study of 5,604 workers from industrial and service companies, we collected information on work-related physical and psychosocial exposures and on individual and health-related factors. Questionnaires were completed at baseline by 4,006 participants (71.5%) and after 24 months by 3,276 (82%). At followup, participants with no or minor pain were included in Cox regression analyses to determine which factors predicted more severe regional pain.Results. Of the 4,006 baseline respondents, only 7.7% were free of regional pain. A total of 1,513 participants were free of severe pain at baseline and completed the 24-month followup. Highly repetitive work predicted arm pain, heavy lifting and prolonged standing predicted low back pain, and heavy pushing or pulling predicted lower limb pain. Low job satisfaction predicted neck/shoulder pain and lower limb pain, whereas other psychosocial work place factors were only of marginal importance. High levels of fear avoidance were associated with arm pain and lower limb pain. A high body mass index was highly associated with lower limb pain.Conclusion. Very few workers are totally free of pain in musculoskeletal regions, and we question the concept of incidence of musculoskeletal pain. The transition from no or minor pain to more severe pain was influenced by physical and psychosocial work place factors together with individual and health-related factors.Regional musculoskeletal pain is common in working populations and in the general population (1-4). Within the last 30 years, much effort has been put into research to identify risk factors for primary prevention, first by focusing on physical hazards in the work place (e.g., heavy lifting, awkward postures, repetitive movements) and second by also introducing psychosocial work place factors (e.g., job demands, job control, social support, and job satisfaction). Many risk factors have been identified in various studies, but no great success has been seen in intervention studies (5,6). It looks as if regional musculoskeletal pain problems are here to stay, and are perhaps a ubiquitous part of modern working life (7,8).It has recently been proposed in a European guideline on back pain that the general nature and course of commonly experienced low back pain means that there is limited scope for preventing its incidence, and that prevention should be focused on reduction of the impact and consequences of back pain (ref. 9 and www.backpaineurope.org). This message could possibly be extended to other regional pain, such as arm pain, neck/shoulder pain, and lower limb pain.The aim of the present study was to examine the effect of work-related factors and individual and healthrelated factors on the onset of more severe musculoskelSupported by grants from the D...