Risk Management and Adaptation for Extremes and Abrupt Changes in Climate and Oceans: Current Knowledge Gaps

Abstract

Perspectives for risk management and adaptation have received ample attention in the recent IPCC Special Report on Changes in the Oceans and Cryosphere (SROCC). However, several knowledge gaps on the impacts of abrupt changes, cascading effects and compound extreme climatic events have been identified, and need further research. We focus on specific climate change risks identified in the SROCC report, namely: changes in tropical and extratropical cyclones; marine heatwaves; extreme ENSO events; and abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Several of the socioeconomic impacts from these events are not yet well-understood, and the literature is also sparse on specific recommendations for integrated risk management and adaptation options to reduce such risks. Also, past research has mostly focussed on concepts that have seen little application to real-world cases. We discuss relevant research needs and priorities for improved social-ecological impact assessment related to these major physical changes in the climate and oceans. For example, harmonised approaches are needed to better understand impacts from compound events, and cascading impacts across systems. Such information is essential to inform options for adaptation, governance and decision-making. Finally, we highlight research needs for developing transformative adaptation options and their governance.

Climate change and human security in coastal regions

“…Governance can be adaptive to maintain a desired state under changing conditions, polycentric with multiple decision-making bodies and multi-level, including local to global scales (Jordan et al, 2018;Carlisle and Gruby, 2019). Multi-level governance, coordination and knowledge co-production across societal actors are required also for more transformational adaptation (Ratter and Leyshon, 2021;Rölfer et al, 2022;Niamir and Pachauri, 2023), although there is limited evidence of implemented governance concepts for transformational coastal adaptation (Bouwer et al, 2022).…”

“…Engineering-based hard structures (such as breakwaters, dikes or seawalls) (Sorensen, 2006) are complemented by soft measures embedded into social and ecological systems, involving the participation of stakeholders and social-science perspectives (Magnan et al, 2022;Philippenko and Le Cozannet, 2023). These measures are coordinated in coastal management, which increasingly is integrated, ecosystem-based and climate-resilient, including risk assessment, watershed management and catchment rehabilitation, sustainable land and water management, coastline protection, adapted to the specific conditions of coastal cities, islands, deltas and marine habitats (Hinkel et al, 2018;Bouwer et al, 2022;Petzold et al, 2023).…”

Principles for transformative ocean governance

“…1) and their collective range, depth and diversity governance [13][14][15][16][17] are recommended to address multiple pressures 8,[18][19][20] exacerbated by the adverse impacts of climate change [21][22][23] . Despite these calls, immense challenges to sustainable ocean use persist 4 , earlier calls for a new planetary deal 24 remain unanswered and effective, holistic principles for transformative ocean governance have not yet been elaborated 25,26 , although priorities for sustainable ocean economies 27,28 and social equity in ocean governance 29 have been articulated. There are also questions regarding not just equity but justice and whether global initiatives are the answer to transformative change 30 .…”

Flood, fires, and drought: Do we have the tools to risk‐assess for environmental management of extreme climatic events?

“…There is also a lack of understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of region‐specific global change risks, such as climatic changes in the northern regions, where effects are more pronounced. Further, global changes in patterns of cyclones and heatwaves, and what those changes mean for the local, vulnerable, and Indigenous communities in the short and long term require further study (Bouwer et al, 2022; Ford, 2012). Additionally, there are limited standard approaches for impact assessment to address cascading impacts across systems (Lawrence et al, 2020).…”