Risk Management and Forecasting Macro-Variables Influences on Bank Risk

Abstract

Nowadays banks, as the most important component ofmoney market, are playing a very important role in country's economy. By developing money markets, banking and financial institutes' activities it is extensively developed and with no doubts economic development is not possible without considering the role of banking and money markets. By virtue of special and sensitive role of banks in Iran economic system, any shock, disturbances and/or ineffectiveness in economic systems directly effect on banks' and financial institutes' performance as well as phenomenon such as high inflation and/or price shocks and fluctuations in other markets such as currencies shall directly and indirectly effect on banks' risk and profitability. Hence in this paper the effects of economic macro variables on capital adequacy, liquidity risk and credit risk of banks have been reviewed. The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between gross domestic product (GDP), petroleum revenue, and exchange rate oncapital adequacy of banks. But the effects of liquidity and inflation on capital adequacy of banks are negative and significant which means it causes decreasing of capital adequacy of banks. Increasing in the variables of petroleum revenue, liquidity and inflation result in increasing of liquidity risk and vice versa the increasing in variables of GDP and exchange rate decreased the liquidity risk. Petroleum revenue, liquidity and inflation increments cause increasing in banks' credit risk as well as GDP and exchange rate increments result in decreasing in banks' credit risk.

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