Risk Matrix for Violent Radicalization: A Machine Learning Approach

Ivaskevics, Krisztián; Haller, József

doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2022.745608

“…Mindell further elaborates on his definition of terrorism: Poverty, drugs, joblessness, lack of education, racism, sexism, and social abuse promote violence. 1 That social injustice foments revenge should be obvious from the fact that the vast majority of 1 Recent research incorporating machine learning also shows that low social status and problematic social relationships can contribute to extremism (Ivaskevics and Haller, 2022).…”

Section: Societal Vs Individual Narratives: Terrorists or Freedom Fig...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 1 Recent research incorporating machine learning also shows that low social status and problematic social relationships can contribute to extremism ( Ivaskevics and Haller, 2022 ). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Radicalization from a societal perspective

Shafieioun,

Haq

2023

Front. Psychol.

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Studies on radicalization tend to focus on the dynamics of extremist groups and how they exploit grievances of vulnerable individuals. It is imperative, however, to also understand the societal factors that lead to such vulnerabilities and grievances. Our social environment plays a key role in how we view the world and shape our beliefs. By understanding the social dynamics, we can gain insight into the motivations that drive people to extremism. Throughout this paper, we examine the societal factors and processes such as discriminative institutional structures and social norms/practices that can make an individual vulnerable and serve as a driving force for them to join a radical group. To do that, we use the process-oriented psychology of Arnold Mindell and the phenomenology of whiteness of Sara Ahmed as our theoretical framework. These frameworks help us map out the societal dynamics causing individuals to carve social niches out of their current social group and into an extremist group. We use interviews with ex-militants of the radical group, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, to show how certain societal dynamics, such as social injustice, misuse of power, marginalization and discrimination, served as key factors that led these individuals to identify and sympathize with radical ideology. The aim of this paper is to emphasize that, to develop effective preventative measures against recruitment into extremist groups, it is imperative to have a profound understanding of the social dynamics that make an individual susceptible to radicalization in the first place.

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“…Ezek a kategóriák a pszichológiai sebezhetőséggel is összefüggnek. Ivaskevics és Haller pedig egy 19 változós 53 egyéni jellemzőt tartalmazó előrejelző modellt alkotott, amelyek alapján az extrémizmus 85%-os pontossággal előre jelezhető (Ivaskevics-Haller 2022). A szerzőpáros elkülönítette az erőszakos és nem erőszakos radikalizálódó személyeket.…”

Section: áBraunclassified

Az extrémizmus indikátorai

Baráth

2023

ScientSec

0

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Összefoglalás. A cikk arra keresi a választ, hogy a terrorizmus és az extrémizmus kapcsán milyen indikátorokat tudunk azonosítani, és ezek mögött milyen okok és magyarázatok találhatók. Áttekintjük a terrortámadások alakulását az utóbbi években, valamint azt, hogy az extrémizmusnak milyen társadalmi és egyéni aspektusai vannak. A tanulmányban elméleti forrásmunkák szintetizálása, valamint egy hazai és nemzetközi adatbázis leíró jellegű elemzése olvasható. Napjainkban a társadalmi és gazdasági válságok a biztonság és identitás újradefiniálására késztetnek, és ezek az egyének sajátos választását is befolyásolják: a meggyengült közösségek és értékek radikalizálódáshoz, extrémizmushoz és terrorizmushoz vezethetnek. Fontos, hogy a tárgyalt témakörben minél szélesebb körűen, multidiszciplináris szemlélettel és innovatívan álljunk a felderítéshez, elhárításhoz és tudományos kutatáshoz, annak érdekében, hogy csökkentsük a társadalmat veszélyeztető egyének és csoportok tevékenységét. Summary. The article examines what indicators we can identify in relation to terrorism and extremism and what reasons and explanations are behind them. We review the development of terrorist attacks in recent years, as well as the social and individual aspects of extremism. The study includes a synthesis of theoretical source works and a descriptive analysis of a domestic and international database. Today’s social and economic crises, security and identity lead to redefining and this affects the specific response of individuals and weakened communities and values can lead to radicalization, extremism and terrorism. It is important to take a multidisciplinary and innovative approach to detection, prevention and research in the discussed topic, in order to reduce the activities of individuals and groups that threaten society. According to the Hungarian model, since 2012–2013 the DEREX index, which is a percentage measure, shows the proportion of respondents who may be susceptible to extreme right-wing ideas and the political actions that can be derived from them, based on the pattern of their attitudes and values in a given society. From this point of view, based on the survey, this “threat” of extremism does not threaten Hungarian society. The definition of terrorism is still not unanimous acceptance, so the term extremism is increasingly being used (Berger 2018), which means extremism that can manifest itself in violence. All of this can be important because it is a complex phenomenon that is not limited to racial, religious, political categories and views, but leaves a mark on society and can cause damage. Extremism is a phenomenon close to radicalism, which can be linked to terrorism in many cases, and this deserves attention in all countries of the world, whether directly or indirectly affected in terms of the risk of terrorism in the given society. If we want to take action against them, the goal can be to divide the political and military leaders, as well as to capture the leaders. It is worth lowering the profile of terrorists in the media, making the goals more expensive, and presenting the act in a different narrative instead of the role of a martyr. Amnesty programs may appear if this fits into society’s values. Furthermore, there are great opportunities in education through the implementation of integration and assimilation programs.

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“…Bármilyen meglepő, a mesterséges intelligenciát korábban még nem használták fel az erőszakos radikalizmus kockázatának becslésére. Ezt a hiányt igyekezett pótolni tavaly megjelent tanulmányunk (Ivaskevics-Haller 2022).…”

Section: A Hipotézis-vezérelt Megközelítésunclassified

Erőszakos radikalizmus kockázatbecslése – elméleti háttér és kutatási eredmények

Haller

2023

ScientSec

0

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Összefoglalás. A tanulmány a terrorveszély felismerésének és kezelésének elméleti és technikai összefoglalását nyújtja. Kiemelten foglalkozik a kockázatbecslés technikájával, és bemutat egy új, mesterséges intelligencián alapuló eljárást, amelynek segítségével 90%-os sikereséllyel lehet azonosítani azokat, akik terrortámadásokat hajthatnak végre. E mellett, az eljárás által szolgáltatott adatok felhasználásával sikerült leírni a radikálisok két típusát, amelyeket megközelítőleg az „alárendelt/erőszakos” és a „vezető/nem-erőszakos” szavakkal jellemezhetnénk. A két csoport között jelentős különbségek voltak a családi háttér, iskolázottság, radikalizálódási folyamat, állampolgársági múlt, bűnözői előélet, és szerepvállalási jellegzetességek tekintetében. Summary. Although Hungary is in a privileged position regarding the threat of terrorism, the history of other countries suggests that similar good positions can be temporary. The threat of terrorism can be investigated by several scientific approaches. After reviewing these, we analyze the theoretical and technical background of risk assessment, and present the results of our recently concluded research. In this we examined the US database PIRUS, which contained 112 types of personal data of 2,148 radicals. About half of them did carry out terrorist attacks the other half did not. Based on the individual characteristics of the radicals, the XGBoost machine learning algorithm correctly identified the perpetrators of the terrorist attacks with a probability of 87%. By using the data provided by the software, it was also possible to describe two types of radicals, which could be roughly characterized by the words “subordinate/violent” and “leader/non-violent”. The former usually had a criminal but not a radical background. They converted late in life (if their radicalization was of a religious nature) and adopted radical ideas as adults (if their radicalization was nonreligious in nature). They played a subordinate role in terrorist groups, required training and were largely influenced by social media. They also belonged to low social classes and had many personal problems. In contrast, non-violent extremists were characterized by a family tradition of radicalism, mostly had no criminal past, belonged to higher social strata, and played leading roles in terrorist organizations. Instead of committing attacks, they engaged in illegal activity by supporting terrorist organizations. The two main types probably consist of subtypes. Compared to violent extremists who were radicalized in prison, for example, those who were not radicalized in prison were mostly foreigners, were often unemployed despite their higher education, and compared to those radicalized in prison, they committed lesser crimes before radicalization. Similar subgroups occurred in both main groups, but their detailed characterization requires further research. Our findings suggest that artificial intelligence can become a good tool for the risk assessment of radicals concerning their proneness to perform terrorist attacks. Moreover, the risk assessment tool employed here may be useful in typifying radicals, and studying their radicalization routes.

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Risk Matrix for Violent Radicalization: A Machine Learning Approach

Cited by 9 publications

References 57 publications

Radicalization from a societal perspective

Radicalization from a societal perspective

Az extrémizmus indikátorai

Erőszakos radikalizmus kockázatbecslése – elméleti háttér és kutatási eredmények

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