Risk Mitigation in Durian Cultivation in Thailand Using the House of Risk (HOR) Method: A Case Study of Pak Chong GI Durian

Abstract

Durian, often regarded as the “king of fruits”, plays a significant role in Thailand’s economy, with durian production expanding rapidly due to its profitability and high demand in both domestic and international markets. This growth has introduced challenges, particularly for geographic indication (GI)-certified durians like those from Pak Chong, where the unique soil, climate, and cultivation practices contribute to the fruit’s distinctive quality. Maintaining these standards is crucial to preserving GI certification, but farmers face increasing risks related to pests, diseases, climate variability, and cultivation practices. Effective risk management is essential to ensure the quality and sustainability of GI-certified durian production. This study analyzes risks in Pak Chong GI durian cultivation and proposes strategies to mitigate these risks. The House of Risk (HOR) method was used to identify potential risks at various stages of durian cultivation, including planting, maintenance, pre-harvest, harvest, and postharvest, and to recommend proactive mitigation strategies. This case study focuses on Pak Chong GI durian farmers. Thirty-one risk events driven by 17 risk agents were identified throughout the durian cultivation process. Key risk agents included observation of durian tree behavior, physical characteristics of the planting area, irrigation quantity, understanding of nutrient management, soil nutrients, and soil pH. The three most significant mitigation strategies identified were the implementation of targeted training and learning programs, improved data collection and plating progress tracking ability, and investment in advanced cultivation technology. This study analyzes the critical risks in Pak Chong GI-certified durian cultivation and proposes targeted mitigation strategies using the House of Risk (HOR) method. By identifying risks (HOR1) and developing proactive solutions (HOR2) across key cultivation stages, this research offers practical insights to enhance the quality and sustainability of GI-certified durian production. The findings aim to support farmers, policymakers, and stakeholders in preserving the economic and cultural value of Pak Chong durians.