Risk Modeling of Bat Rabies in the Caribbean Islands

Abstract

Rabies surveillance and control measures vary significantly between Caribbean islands. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently recommends certain groups of U.S. travelers to any Caribbean island receive pre-exposure rabies immunization. However, most islands self-declare as "rabies free", and have never publicly released data to support rabies-free claims. We used the Analytic Hierarchy Process to create pairwise comparison values among five risk factors determined by subject matter experts. Risk factor weights were calculated and used in a geospatial analysis to calculate a risk value for each island nation (higher values indicate higher risk). Risk values ranged from 8.73 (Trinidad) to 1.57 (The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands). All four countries that have documented occurrences of laboratory confirmed rabid bats were ranked highest (Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Cuba, Dominican Republic), as well as Haiti. The top five highest risk countries that currently have no reports of bat rabies include St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, the Cayman Islands, and Dominica. This study reviews the inter-island movement potential of bats, designates areas of high risk for bat-associated rabies within the Caribbean islands, and demonstrates a need for further surveillance efforts in bat populations within islands that self-declare as rabies free.

Rabies in a postpandemic world: resilient reservoirs, redoubtable riposte, recurrent roadblocks, and resolute recidivism

“…For example, on certain islands, such as Hawaii, susceptible hosts abound, but splendid isolation in this case of a distant, insular environment is devoid of a pathogen source, unless introduced (Sasaki et al 1992 ). Greater proximity to a source also complicates the probability of relative sustainability (Morgan et al 2020 ). In addition, such appreciation also implies a relevant, decentralized laboratory-based surveillance system, with more limited bias for the inclusion of wildlife (Wallace et al 2014 ).…”

Tick-borne viruses and their risk to public health in the Caribbean: Spotlight on bats as reservoirs in Cuba

“…In the Caribbean region, rabies is a notifiable disease on the islands of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba and active surveillance of the disease is carried out [ 71 ]. The wildlife reservoir of RABV in the islands is mainly represented by the Indian mongoose ( Herpestes auropunctatus ) (Cuba, Grenada and Puerto Rico) [ 71 , 72 ], while vampire bats represent a reservoir in the south of the Caribbean islands and on the mainland of Latin America (Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Suriname, Belize and French Guiana). In Cuba, the first case of rabies was reported in mongoose in 1956 and later in carnivores and insectivorous bat species such as Eptesicus fuscus and Eumops glaucinus [ 71 , 72 ].…”

“…The wildlife reservoir of RABV in the islands is mainly represented by the Indian mongoose ( Herpestes auropunctatus ) (Cuba, Grenada and Puerto Rico) [ 71 , 72 ], while vampire bats represent a reservoir in the south of the Caribbean islands and on the mainland of Latin America (Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Suriname, Belize and French Guiana). In Cuba, the first case of rabies was reported in mongoose in 1956 and later in carnivores and insectivorous bat species such as Eptesicus fuscus and Eumops glaucinus [ 71 , 72 ]. The Cuban rabies isolates of terrestrial species form a single monophyletic group [ 73 ].…”

Determination of freedom-from-rabies for small Indian mongoose populations in the United States Virgin Islands, 2019–2020

“…Caribbean [7,9]. USVI has never had a rabies virus detected in canines nor bats, and risk modelling for endemic bat rabies in the Caribbean revealed USVI to be at "low risk" [24]. It is possible that the lack of rabies in mongooses indicates a lack of other endemic rabies reservoirs (e.g.…”