Risk of Cascading Blackouts Given Correlated Component Outages

Clarfeld, Laurence A.; Hines, Paul; Hernández, Eduardo; Eppstein, Margaret J.

doi:10.1109/tnse.2019.2910837

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…It is proven in cascading simulation that initial outage spatial correlation has a substantial impact on assessing cascading risk [23], [24]. In general, the increased correlation of close initial outages increases the cascading risk.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Most Frequent N-k Line Outages Occur in Motifs That Can Improve Contingency Selection

Zhou

Dobson

Wang

2024

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

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Multiple line outages that occur together show a variety of spatial patterns in the power transmission network. Some of these spatial patterns form network contingency motifs, which we define as the patterns of multiple outages that occur much more frequently than multiple outages chosen randomly from the network. We show that choosing N-k contingencies from these commonly occurring contingency motifs accounts for most of the probability of multiple initiating line outages. This result is demonstrated using historical outage data for two transmission systems. It enables N-k contingency lists that are much more efficient in accounting for the likely multiple initiating outages than exhaustive listing or random selection. The N-k contingency lists constructed from motifs can improve risk estimation in cascading outage simulations and help to confirm utility contingency selection.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Most Frequent N-k Line Outages Occur in Motifs That Can Improve Contingency Selection

Zhou

Dobson

Wang

2024

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

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“…Moreover, it is assumed that the initial outages in each scenario are independent, i.e., the probability of an initial event is the product of the individual outage probabilities. Correlations between initial outages, such as aging degree [25] and spatial correlation [26], [27] have been already investigated in some studies. Such factors can be applied if desired without affecting the general methodology presented here.…”

Section: B Risk Assessment Of Cascading Failuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using Critical Line Sensitivities

Dai

Noebels

Preece

et al. 2024

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

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Security concerns have been raised about cascading failure risks in evolving power grids. This paper reveals, for the first time, that the risk of cascading failures can be increased at low network demand levels when considering security-constrained generation dispatch. This occurs because critical transmission corridors become very highly loaded due to the presence of centralized generation dispatch, e.g., large thermal plants far from demand centers. This increased cascading risk is revealed in this work by incorporating security-constrained generation dispatch into the risk assessment and mitigation of cascading failures. A security-constrained AC optimal power flow, which considers economic functions and security constraints (e.g., network constraints, 𝑵 − 𝟏 security, and generation margin), is used to provide a representative day-ahead operational plan. Cascading failures are simulated using two simulators, a quasi-steady state DC power flow model, and a dynamic model incorporating all frequency-related dynamics, to allow for result comparison and verification. The risk assessment procedure is illustrated using synthetic networks of 200 and 2,000 buses. Further, a novel preventive mitigation measure is proposed to first identify critical lines, whose failures are likely to trigger cascading failures, and then to limit power flow through these critical lines during dispatch. Results show that shifting power equivalent to 1% of total demand from critical lines to other lines can reduce cascading risk by up to 80%.

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“…Although N − 1 contingencies occur more frequently in practice, N − 2 and N − 3 contingencies are catastrophic events that are worth considering as they are harder to correct. Extreme weather events, attacks, or component aging could cause these N − k (where k ≥ 2) contingency scenarios to occur [57]. Adding uncertain renewable energy sources such as wind energy to power networks increases the probability of correlated faults and thus the possibility of N − 2 and N − 3 contingencies [58].…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Efficient Homotopy Method for Solving the Post-Contingency Optimal Power Flow to Global Optimality

et al. 2022

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Optimal power flow (OPF) is a fundamental problem in power systems analysis for determining the steady-state operating point of a power network that minimizes the generation cost. In anticipation of component failures, such as transmission line or generator outages, it is also important to find optimal corrective actions for the power flow distribution over the network. The problem of finding these post-contingency solutions to the OPF problem is challenging due to the nonconvexity of the power flow equations and the large number of contingency cases in practice. In this paper, we introduce a homotopy method to solve for the post-contingency actions, which involves a series of intermediate optimization problems that gradually transform the original OPF problem into each contingency-OPF problem. We show that given a global solution to the original OPF problem, a global solution to the contingency problem can be obtained using this homotopy method, under some conditions. With simulations on Polish and other European networks, we demonstrate that the effectiveness of the proposed homotopy method is dependent on the choice of the homotopy path and that homotopy yields an improved solution in many cases. For at least 5% of the test cases, bad local minima were identified, and the homotopy method yielded a solution that was significantly better than state-of-the-art interior point methods in terms of reducing the violation cost during a catastrophic contingency scenario.INDEX TERMS Power systems, optimal power flow, nonconvex optimization, contingency analysis I. INTRODUCTIONRecently, there has been elevated interest in studying the

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Risk of Cascading Blackouts Given Correlated Component Outages

Cited by 12 publications

References 48 publications

The Most Frequent N-k Line Outages Occur in Motifs That Can Improve Contingency Selection

The Most Frequent N-k Line Outages Occur in Motifs That Can Improve Contingency Selection

Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using Critical Line Sensitivities

An Efficient Homotopy Method for Solving the Post-Contingency Optimal Power Flow to Global Optimality

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