Risk of COVID-19 variant importation – How useful are travel control measures?

Arino, Julien; Boëlle, Pierre‐Yves; Milliken, Evan; Portet, Stéphanie

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.006

Cited by 14 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Configuration P3 further supports this assertation. Therefore, international travel control measures are not fully sufficient and must be combined with other lockdown policies to influence the outcome, corroborating several studies suggesting that international travel restrictions are the most effective in reducing pandemic spread when they are implemented in combination with other lockdown policies [ 57 , 58 , 59 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 58%

Rethinking Lockdown Policies in the Pre-Vaccine Era of COVID-19: A Configurational Perspective

Zhang

Liu

Nunkoo

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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The significance of lockdown policies for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic is widely recognized. However, most studies have focused on individual lockdown measures. The effectiveness of lockdown policy combinations has not been examined from a configurational perspective. This research applies fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to examine different lockdown policy combinations associated with high-epidemic situations in 84 countries. A high-epidemic situation can occur through three different “weak-confined” patterns of lockdown policy combinations. The findings demonstrate that a combination of lockdown policies is more successful than any single lockdown policy, whereas the absence of several key measures in policy combinations can lead to a high-epidemic situation. The importance of international travel controls can become obscured when they are the only measures adopted, and a high-epidemic situation can still arise where restrictions are placed on international travel but not on public transport or when workplaces are closed but schools remain open.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 58%

Rethinking Lockdown Policies in the Pre-Vaccine Era of COVID-19: A Configurational Perspective

Zhang

Liu

Nunkoo

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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“…As of 10 November 2021, more than 250 million cases and 5 million associated deaths were confirmed [1]. New variants of SARS-CoV-2 strains have emerged, which makes the situation more complex, and new waves recur even in some countries/areas where SARS-CoV-2 infections seemed to be under control [2][3][4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various interventions, including mask-wearing, quarantining, and social distancing, have played a significant role in monitoring and regulating the COVID-19 pandemic [4][5][6][7]; nevertheless, vaccination is considered a highly cost-effective intervention to mitigate the pandemic [8,9]. The documented flare-ups and breakthrough cases have been ascribed to three potentials: (1) the circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2 and their effect on vaccineelicited immunity; (2) the speed of natural decline of antibodies among vaccinated people; and (3) the requirement for booster doses [10,11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine Breakthrough Infections in Fully Vaccinated Healthcare Personnel: A Systematic Review

et al. 2022

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The number of people vaccinated against COVID-19 increases worldwide every day; however, it is important to study the risk of breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals at high risk of exposure such as healthcare personnel (HCP). A systematic literature review (SLR) applying the PRISMA declaration and the PECOS format using the following entry terms was used: “Health Personnel OR Healthcare Worker OR Healthcare Provider OR Healthcare Personnel AND breakthrough OR infection after vaccine*”. The research was carried out utilizing the following databases: SCOPUS, PubMed, Embase, and Web of Sciences. An overall very low incidence of post-vaccination breakthrough infections was found, ranging from 0.011 to 0.001 (per 100 individuals at risk). Our findings further support the published high effectiveness rates of mRNA vaccines in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections among fully vaccinated HCP. Additional studies are needed to define the duration of the vaccine-induced protection among HCP.

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“…While guidelines for reopening have been developed by many jurisdictions, those using criteria expressed as the number of observed community cases (Anderson et al, 2021; Nali et al, 2021) are not helpful for regions that are reopening when there are few community cases. There is a need to communicate reasonable expectations to the public in regions where elimination has been implemented, as relaxation of measures might have little or no impact on the epidemics when infection prevalence is already high (Russell et al, 2021; Chen et al, 2020), but might well bring risk to populations with zero or low COVID-19 prevalence (Russell et al, 2021; Chen et al, 2020; Arino et al, 2021), even when measures are carefully and reasonably relaxed, and particularly if the prevalence of variants of concern is higher outside the jurisdiction than in (Wells et al, 2020; Grépin et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy

Hurford

Martignoni

Loredo-Osti

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries, such as Australia, China, Iceland, New Zealand, Thailand and Vietnam, successfully implemented an elimination strategy. Until June 2021, Atlantic Canada and Canada's territories had also experienced prolonged periods with few SARS-CoV-2 community cases. Such regions had a need for epidemiological models that could assess the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, but most existing frameworks are applicable to regions where SARS-CoV-2 is spreading in the community, and so it was necessary to adapt existing frameworks to meet this need. We distinguish between infections that are travel-related and those that occur in the community, and find that in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island the mean percentage of daily cases that were travel-related was 80% or greater (July 1, 2020 -- May 31, 2021). We show that by December 24, 2021, the daily probability of an Omicron variant community outbreak establishing in NL was near one, and nearly twice as high as the previous high, which occurred in September 2021 when the Delta variant was dominant. We evaluate how vaccination and new variants might affect hypothetical future outbreaks in Mt. Pearl, NL. Our modelling framework can be used to evaluate alternative plans to relax public health restrictions when high levels of vaccination are achieved in regions that have implemented an elimination strategy.

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Risk of COVID-19 variant importation – How useful are travel control measures?

Cited by 14 publications

References 32 publications

Rethinking Lockdown Policies in the Pre-Vaccine Era of COVID-19: A Configurational Perspective

Rethinking Lockdown Policies in the Pre-Vaccine Era of COVID-19: A Configurational Perspective

SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine Breakthrough Infections in Fully Vaccinated Healthcare Personnel: A Systematic Review

Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy

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