Risk of Rice Cultivation under Current and Future Environment and Market

Abstract

Risk is an inevitable feature of agriculture globally, and it might increase over time in the future. The study assesses the risk of rice cultivation in the three seasons under current and future conditions. The software programme @Risk version 7.6 was used to simulate the risk-return trade of rice cultivation in the three seasons in Bangladesh. The likelihood of having negative net income for the Aus (90%) and Boro (80%) rice was very high under the current market and environmental conditions. Besides, the chance of obtaining negative net income was notable for T. Aman (33%). Both the yield and price variation significantly contributed to the fluctuation of returns of rice production. However, with the current seasonal variation in yield, the probability of having negative net income for paddy rice was very low under the farmers’ expected price (Aman: 22.5 BDT kg-1, Boro: 25 BDT kg-1 and Aus: 24 BDT kg-1). The result indicates that only access to the fair price of the rough rice can ensure the economic sustainability of the rice production. Likewise, chances of having a negative net income of paddy rice in 2030 will be zero under the extrapolated yield (Aman: 5.3 kg ha-1, Boro: 6.3 kg ha-1 and Aus: 4.8 kg ha-1) and price (Aman: 31.75 BDT kg-1, Boro: 30.75 BDT kg-1 and Aus: 30 BDT kg-1). The findings indicate that rice cultivation in the three seasons will be economically sustainable, subject to achieving the expected genetic gain and ensuring access to the projected price. Thus, policy supports are needed to ensure farmers' access to a fair price, improve management practice, and strengthen research to enhance genetic gain for sustainable rice farming under future conditions. Bangladesh Rice J. 25 (1) : 101-110, 2021

Morphometric analysis and prioritization of the drought-prone watersheds in the northwest Bangladesh for soil conservation

“…Dinajpur, one of the northern districts of Bangladesh, is known for its agricultural importance. According to Kabir et al, (2018), there was an 80-183% surplus in rice production during 2014-2015 in Dinajpur. However, this region is also known as a drought-prone area in the country.…”

Sustaining rice productivity through weather‐resilient agricultural practices

“…4 Furthermore, the weather also has an impact on the quality of crops during movement from field to warehousing and then to market. 5 Adverse weather can affect the quality of products during transportation, as well as the viability and vigor of seeds and planting material during warehousing. 6 Crops and cropping systems must be matched to the meteorological requirements for maximum yield at a specific area, and pest-and diseaseprevalent seasons must be avoided.…”

“…The weather significantly influences crop growth, maturity, yields, pest and disease prevalence, and water and fertilizer needs 4 . Furthermore, the weather also has an impact on the quality of crops during movement from field to warehousing and then to market 5 . Adverse weather can affect the quality of products during transportation, as well as the viability and vigor of seeds and planting material during warehousing 6 .…”

Cold-Tolerant and Short-Duration Rice (Oryza sativa L.) for Sustainable Food Security of the Flash Flood-Prone Haor Wetlands of Bangladesh

“…The average cropping intensity of Haor areas is 176% (Table 3) as reported by the DAE [3]. Haor regions play a crucial role by (i) contributing around 18% of the overall Boro rice production [5] and (ii) generating job opportunities for non-farm wage employees by harvesting Boro rice about one month before other locations [6]. Data presented in the Table 4 shows that Haor districts and regions account for around 19% and 9% of the nation's total Boro rice acreage, respectively [7].…”

“…Data presented in the Table 4 shows that Haor districts and regions account for around 19% and 9% of the nation's total Boro rice acreage, respectively [7]. Kabir et al [6] also reported that about 36% of the land is under Boro rice cultivation in Sunamganj compared to 23% in Kishoreganj and 11% in Habiganj (Figure 4). Around 22 to 73% of the total land area is under cultivation (Figure 5).…”