Risk Perception Influence on Vaccination Program on COVID-19 in Chile: A Mathematical Model

Gutiérrez-Jara, Juan Pablo; Saracini, Chiara

doi:10.3390/ijerph19042022

Cited by 10 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Risk perception has been explored in the literature. Gutierrez-Jara et al [7] and Lin et al [6] have published models for covid incorporating different metrics of risk description in their formulation, but with different algebraic structure and aims, compared to ours. In [7], a model is developed to assess the interaction between vaccination and perception of risk concluding that the highest waves of COVID-19 contagion in Chile were related to the risk perception of people.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…or study the effect of risk perception on disease dynamics [e.g. [4][5][6][7][8] that have attempted to answer this question. In [4], geolocalized risk information for COVID-19 is used that gives the probability of finding, at time 𝑡, at least one infected person in an event of 𝑘 individuals via a binomial assumption of homogeneous risk; [5] revises the 1918 influenza pandemic for which a basic mathematical model is constructed that through a time-dependent transmission contact rate, simulates schools openings and closures, temperature changes, and also changes in human behavior.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, changes in human behavior are formulated through risk perception to reported deaths by the disease. In [7] a mathematical model to explore COVID-19 dynamics in Chile is presented. This model includes vaccination dynamics and two perception risk variables, for the unvaccinated and vaccinated population respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling a traffic light warning system for acute respiratory infections

Díaz‐Infante

Acuña-Zegarra

Hernández³

2022

Preprint

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The high morbidity of acute respiratory infections constitutes a crucial global health burden. In particular, for SARS-CoV-2, non-pharmaceutical intervention geared to enforce social distancing policies, vaccination, and treatments will remain an essential part of public health policies to mitigate and control disease outbreaks. However, the implementation of mitigation measures directed to increase social distancing when the risk of contagion is a complex enterprise because of the impact of NPI on beliefs, political views, economic issues, and, in general, public perception. The way of implementing these mitigation policies studied in this work is the so-called traffic-light monitoring system that attempts to regulate the application of measures that include restrictions on mobility and the size of meetings, among other non-pharmaceutical strategies. Balanced enforcement and relaxation of measures guided through a traffic-light system that considers public risk perception and economic costs may improve the public health benefit of the policies while reducing their cost. We derive a model for the epidemiological traffic-light policies based on the best response for trigger measures driven by the risk perception of people, instant reproduction number, and the prevalence of a hypothetical acute respiratory infection. With numerical experiments, we evaluate and identify the role of appreciation from a hypothetical controller that could opt for protocols aligned with the cost due to the burden of the underlying disease and the economic cost of implementing measures. As the world faces new acute respiratory outbreaks, our results provide a methodology to evaluate and develop traffic light policies resulting from a delicate balance between health benefits and economic implications.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling a traffic light warning system for acute respiratory infections

Díaz‐Infante

Acuña-Zegarra

Hernández³

2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Finally, it is also worth mentioning that including people’s risk perception or behavior within disease modeling is a dynamic aspect to consider in future work. This behavioral aspect alters the dynamics of different diseases [ 51 , 52 , 53 , 70 , 71 ], as well as the effects on health after exposure to pesticides [ 25 ], allowing us to study through mathematical models the impact of prevention and mitigation campaigns considering individuals’ awareness.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The transmission rate is defined as

where

is the natural transmission rate,

is the ITN coverage, and

is a variable representing risk perception of humans to malaria disease, such that an increase in risk perception from a natural risk perception to malaria,

, results in a reduction of the transmission rate. The dynamics of this risk variable are determined by the following differential equation, as in [ 25 , 51 , 52 , 53 ]:

where

represents resistance to change and

represents the velocity of reaction to the presence of disease. We observe that individuals increase their risk perception to malaria when there is an increase in the number of infectious individuals.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collateral Effects of Insecticide-Treated Nets on Human and Environmental Safety in an Epidemiological Model for Malaria with Human Risk Perception

Gutiérrez-Jara

Vogt-Geisse

Cabrera

2022

IJERPH

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Malaria remains a major health problem in many parts of the world, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Insecticide-treated nets, in combination with other control measures, have been effective in reducing malaria incidence over the past two decades. Nevertheless, there are concerns about improper handling and misuse of nets, producing possible health effects from intoxication and collateral environmental damage. The latter is caused, for instance, from artisanal fishing. We formulate a model of impulsive differential equations to describe the interplay between malaria dynamics, human intoxication, and ecosystem damage; affected by human awareness to these risks and levels of net usage. Our results show that an increase in mosquito net coverage reduces malaria prevalence and increases human intoxications. In addition, a high net coverage significantly reduces the risk perception to disease, naturally increases the awareness for intoxications from net handling, and scarcely increases the risk perception to collateral damage from net fishing. According to our model, campaigns aiming at reducing disease prevalence or intoxications are much more successful than those creating awareness to ecosystem damage. Furthermore, we can observe from our results that introducing closed fishing periods reduces environmental damage more significantly than strategies directed towards increasing the risk perception for net fishing.

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