Risk perception with imperfect information and social interactions: Understanding group polarization

Abstract

This article examines the group polarization process when agents are faced with a risk for which the probability of occurrence is not perfectly known. First, we show information destruction through an informational cascade phenomenon. Then, we analyze how this inefficiency is amplified if individuals with the same type of risk-related behavior group together. Two extensions are detailed: consideration of the possibility that individual agents participate in more than one group, and introduction of agents highly confident in their own information, enabling cascades to be "broken." Under conditions, the behavior of these agents, costly at the individual level, is collectively efficient.

‘Communication, that is the key’: a qualitative investigation of how essential workers with COVID-19 responded to public health information

“… 14 These needs evolve overtime, are directed by personal experiences and determine the perceived importance of seeking the best possible information or making correct decisions. 15 …”

“…Adopting beliefs by processing imperfect information through social interactions indicates the use of well-documented heuristic principles, mainly the representativeness heuristic (ie, comparing risk situations with those that seem similar), the availability heuristic (ie, assessing risk with information most easily accessed) and the anchoring heuristic (ie, risk estimate based on previous event). 15 28 While this may seem undesirable to evidence-based domains, heuristics and risk management principles continue to form the basis of many effective COVID-19 measures that are defendable even in the absence of scientific evidence. 29 30 …”

“…PID Open access importance of seeking the best possible information or making correct decisions. 15 Given the extent of coverage in the media, information on COVID-19 was practically unavoidable in 2020. Early information on COVID-19 appears to have had the effect of focusing attention on symptoms and how suspected cases should be managed.…”