Risk Prediction and Sex Offending

Cording, Jacinta R.; Ward, Tony; Christofferson, Sarah M. Beggs

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-04696-5_14

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Further exploring the potential link between within‐treatment change and future patterns of offending is, therefore, of vital importance for researchers and practitioners, to validate the core foundation of most current rehabilitative programmes. Based on their meta‐analysis, van den Berg et al (2018) suggested that the issue may lie in the over‐reliance on correlates or ‘symptoms’ of offending when identifying what constitutes a dynamic risk factor, an argument that has also been made by other researchers (Cording et al, 2019; Ward & Fortune, 2016). While this statistical approach may be entirely appropriate for the identification of risk factors for the purpose of predicting reoffending, this approach is insufficient to identify meaningful factors when trying to understand the causes of offending.…”

Section: Commentary #2 By Cording: Understanding the Role Of Dynamic ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This crisis is perhaps particularly applicable to forensic psychology (Ward, 2019), where much of the focus over the years has been on the prediction of risk to the detriment of the development of strong etiological theories that explain offending (the latter of which would be more useful for the development of measures that meaningfully capture holistic treatment targets). I have written elsewhere about the potential value of Haig's (2014) Abductive Theory of Method (ATOM) to scaffold the development of etiological theories (Cording et al, 2019). In particular, it is important to recognize the distinction between existential abduction (where the presence of particular phenomena—such as a statistical link between psychological factors such as sexual deviance or emotional regulation and reoffending—are taken as evidence for the existence of a latent construct—such as dynamic risk factors) and analogical abduction (where further work is done to build explanatory theories that explain the nature and cause of these proposed latent constructs).…”

Section: Commentary #2 By Cording: Understanding the Role Of Dynamic ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Urgent issues and prospects in correctional rehabilitation practice and research

Ward

Arrigo

Barnao³

et al. 2022

Legal Criminol Psychol

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The aim of this paper is to identify some of the urgent issues currently confronting criminal justice policymakers, researchers and practitioners. To this end a diverse group of researchers and clinicians have collaborated to identify pressing concerns in the field and to make some suggestions about how to proceed in the future. The authors represent individuals with varying combinations of criminal justice research, professional training (e.g. social work, criminal justice, criminology, social work, clinical psychology) and clinical orientation, and experience. The paper is comprised of 13 commentaries and a subsequent discussion based on these reflections. The commentaries are divided into the categories of explanation of criminal behaviour, clinical assessment and correctional intervention, and cover issues ranging from the role of clinical expertise in treatment, problems with risk assessment to the adverse effects of social oppression on minority groups. Following the commentaries, we summarize some of their key themes and briefly discuss a number of major issues likely to confront the field in the next 5–10 years.

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Section: Commentary #2 By Cording: Understanding the Role Of Dynamic ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Commentary #2 By Cording: Understanding the Role Of Dynamic ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Urgent issues and prospects in correctional rehabilitation practice and research

Ward

Arrigo

Barnao³

et al. 2022

Legal Criminol Psychol

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…For assessors, this carries a responsibility and the need to ensure that the methods utilised to assess the risk are meaningful in terms of being predictive of actual reductions in the risk of recidivism (de Vries Robbé, et al, 2015; Harris, Pedneault and Willis, 2019; Kemshall and Maguire, 2001). The issue of how to incorporate information related to individual change into assessments of risk becomes especially relevant when considering the implications that a reduction in estimated risk may have for an individual and their progress (Cording et al, 2019). This goes some way to explaining why risk management was such a prominent topic for practitioners.…”

Section: Safeguarding and Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

‘Paedophile Hunters’: Practitioner Perspectives

Frampton

2022

Probation Journal

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The National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) position on Online Child Abuse Activist Groups (OCAGs), more commonly referred to as ‘paedophile hunters’, is that their motivation should be questioned since there is no positive advantage to policing. The problematic nature and inaccuracy of the term ‘paedophile hunter’ will be explored within this article, but the term is widely used in practice. Such activism increases risk to potential victims, the suspect and to the efficiency and effectiveness of criminal justice processes ( NPCC, 2018 ). The Probation Service (PS) have no formal position regarding the activity. Yet public fascination with those convicted of sexual offences against children and the appetite for naming and shaming these individuals is not a new phenomenon. The rise in popularity of the internet and the surge in content available online is more recent, and so is the problem of threat exceeding capacity. But what are the views of practitioners on this issue? Using in-depth qualitative interviews with police and probation practitioners, this paper examines how ‘paedophile hunting’ activity has become a concept in the management of sexual offending in England and Wales, and for the first time, reveals the views and attitudes of professionals working on the front line.

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“…Prediction is a universally recognised epistemic task, and its products have widespread influence. Predicting an individual's likelihood of reoffending is arguably the most salient and considered task for those working in correctional psychology (Cording et al, 2019). Correctional risk prediction guides decisions at all levels of the criminal justice system, including sentencing and parole conditions, release planning, custodial placement, and security ratings (Lowenkamp, Holsinger & Latessa, 2001).…”

Section: Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Classificatory Pluralism in Correctional Psychology: Advancing Our Research and Practice

Carter¹

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Scientific classification, although often underemphasised, has a profound impact on subsequent scientific tasks such as explanation, prediction, and in applied fields, treatment. It also shapes the way that we interact with the world, and guides the kinds of decisions that we make, be they empirical or non-empirical. In correctional psychology, it has been acknowledged that classification practices lack validity and are fraught with conceptual weaknesses. However, there has been little scholarship addressing these weaknesses, offering alternative approaches, or critically considering what would be required to improve correctional classification practices. In this doctoral thesis I begin to address this gap in the literature and argue it is time that classification be taken seriously in psychological research. In doing so, I adopt a theoretical perspective known as epistemic pluralism, and from this lens I develop a novel approach to correctional classification and provide two conceptual frameworks that are necessary for this approach to be implemented in practice. The implications of this novel approach are explored, and it is argued that a theoretical shift from a unified to a pluralistic account of classification provides a more appropriate and profitable approach to classifying correctional phenomena, and helps to address the conceptual problems that existing practices display. Continuing to establish research and practice around conceptually impoverished categories is not a scientifically defensible direction for correctional psychology. Rather, it is time that the complexity of correctional psychology is acknowledged and accounted for in our classificatory work. Failing to do so results in poor scientific progress and treatment programmes/modalities that display, at best, modest outcomes. This thesis provides the methodological and conceptual foundations for advancing correctional classification practices, and ultimately, improving correctional research and practice.

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Risk Prediction and Sex Offending

Cited by 3 publications

References 57 publications

Urgent issues and prospects in correctional rehabilitation practice and research

Urgent issues and prospects in correctional rehabilitation practice and research

‘Paedophile Hunters’: Practitioner Perspectives

Classificatory Pluralism in Correctional Psychology: Advancing Our Research and Practice

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