Risk Prediction of Post-Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection Coagulation Syndrome

Abstract

Introduction: Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) has been popular worldwide to treat laterally spreading tumors and large polyps. Post-ESD coagulation syndrome (PECS) is more common than the two major ESD-related complications, perforation and bleeding. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of PECS, identify the risk factors for PECS, and create a risk prediction model for PECS. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional study analyzed a total of 986 patients who underwent colorectal ESD. Logistic regression models were used to assess risk factors with PECS. Each risk factor was scored and the 3-step risk stratification index of prediction model was assessed. Results: The prevalence of PECS was 21.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]=18.9%–24.1%). The risk factors of PECS in the multivariate logistic regression were tumor size (+1 cm: odds ratio [OR], 1.29; 95% CI, 1.16 to 7.09), cecal lesion (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.53), procedure time (+30 minutes: OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.39), and ESD with snaring (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.95). Applying a simplified weighted scoring system based on adjusted OR increments of 1, the risk of PECS was 12.3% (95% CI, 0.3%-16.0%) for the low-risk group (score ≤ 4) and was 36.0% (95% CI=29.4%–43.2%) for the high-risk group (score ≥ 8). Overall discrimination (C-statistic=0.629; 95% CI=0.585–0.672) and calibration (p = 0.993) of the model were moderate to good. Conclusion: PECS occurs frequently and the prediction model can be helpful for effective treatment and prevention of PECS.