Risk, Race and Incumbents: The Effect of Authoritarianism on the Vote for Incumbents in 2012

Abstract

Using data from the 2012 American National Election Studies (ANES), I assess the impact of authoritarianism on the likelihood to vote for Senate, House and presidential incumbents amongst White and Black Americans. I find that the influence of authoritarianism on the vote for incumbents depends on the race of the voter and the party identification of the incumbent. This suggests that risk-averse voting behavior amongst authoritarians is a function of party affiliation in addition to perceived threat, and heavily qualified by race.