Risk to North American birds from climate change‐related threats

Abstract

Climate change is a significant threat to biodiversity globally. Here, we assessed the risk to 544 birds in the United States from future climate changerelated threats under a mitigation-dependent global warming scenario of 1.5 C and an unmitigated scenario of 3.0 C. Threats considered included sea level rise, human land cover conversion, and extreme weather events. We identified potential impacts to individual species by overlaying future bird ranges with threats to calculate the proportion of species' ranges affected, and mapped a place-based index of risk based on hazard (coincident threats), exposure (potential species richness), and vulnerability (potential richness of vulnerable species). Extreme weather events had the most extensive spatial coverage and contribution to risk, but urbanization and sea level rise also had disproportionate impacts on species relative to their coverage. With unmitigated climate change, multiple coincident threats affected over 88% of the area of the conterminous United States, and 97% of species could be affected by two or more climate-related threats. Some habitat groups will see up to 96% of species facing three or more threats. Species of conservation concern also faced more threats regardless of climate change scenario. However, climate change mitigation would reduce risk to birds from climate change-related threats across over 90% of the US.

Half‐Century Winter Duck Abundance and Temperature Trends in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways

“…Hunting and birdwatching contribute millions of dollars per year to local economies (USFWS and U.S. Census Bureau 2016) and declines in wintering populations of dabbling and diving ducks in southern regions may lessen economic and cultural co-benefits (Guerry et al 2015). Our results provide additional support for concerns already expressed by duck hunters and waterfowl biologists (Vrtiska et al 2013, Moorman 2020, and forecasting studies (Bateman et al 2020) suggest continuation of the patterns documented by our analysis. Waterfowl hunting regulations have evolved in North America since enactment of the Migratory Bird Treaty Act in 1918 and will continue to evolve via strategic variations in adaptive harvest management (Nichols et al 1995).…”

“…Results from our study also complement another largescale study that predicted future changes in duck winter ranges with global warming (https://www.audubon.org/ climate/survivalbydegrees, accessed 24 Aug 2020). Bateman et al (2020) inferred that historical changes in winter ranges suggested by our study are expected to continue. Their projections indicated that, given a 3°C increase in global annual temperature, all species included in our study will continue the shift to wintering in historically colder regions at more northern latitudes.…”

Boreal Bird Ecology, Management and Conservation

“…The North American boreal biome is a mosaic of wetland complexes and forests that are projected to be transformed as the Earth's climate continues to warm and increase the frequency and magnitude of boreal disturbances such as drought, permafrost thaw, fire, and insect outbreaks [122]. Under various simulations of climate-mediated ecological change over the 21 st century, the boreal biome is projected to contract by up to 42% [123], and boreal birds are projected to both dramatically shift their ranges northwards and upwards in elevation and suffer disproportionately high losses in population size and range extent among North America avifauna [22,89,122,124,125]. The rusty blackbird is particularly vulnerable to projected reductions in suitable breeding habitat, which could result in the loss of more than half of the species' breeding range [125] and population numbers [89].…”

Implications of Historical and Contemporary Processes on Genetic Differentiation of a Declining Boreal Songbird: The Rusty Blackbird

“…The North American boreal biome is a mosaic of wetland complexes and forests that are projected to be transformed as the Earth's climate continues to warm and increase the frequency and magnitude of boreal disturbances such as drought, permafrost thaw, fire, and insect outbreaks [122]. Under various simulations of climate-mediated ecological change over the 21 st century, the boreal biome is projected to contract by up to 42% [123], and boreal birds are projected to both dramatically shift their ranges northwards and upwards in elevation and suffer disproportionately high losses in population size and range extent among North America avifauna [22,89,122,124,125]. The rusty blackbird is particularly vulnerable to projected reductions in suitable breeding habitat, which could result in the loss of more than half of the species' breeding range [125] and population numbers [89].…”