Risk, Uncertainty, and Violence in Eastern Africa

Ember, Carol R.; Adem, Teferi Abate; Skoggard, Ian

doi:10.1007/s12110-012-9157-5

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Epidemiological evidence supports this prediction: an increased tendency for paranoid thinking has been documented in general population groups that are involved in higher-than-average rates of coalitionary aggression, such as gang members 75 and army veterans 76,77. The probability of inter-coalitionary violence is increased under conditions of resource scarcity78 and, as expected, living in poverty is also associated with increased tendency for paranoid thinking79.…”

Section: A Coalitional Psychology Model Of Paranoiamentioning

confidence: 62%

An evolutionary perspective on paranoia

Raihani

Bell

2018

Nat Hum Behav

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Paranoia is the most common symptom of psychosis but paranoid concerns occur throughout the general population. Here, we argue for an evolutionary approach to paranoia across the spectrum of severity that accounts for its complex social phenomenology – including the perception of conspiracy and selective identification of perceived persecutors – and considers how it can be understood in light of our evolved social cognition. We argue that the presence of coalitions and coordination between groups in competitive situations could favour psychological mechanisms that detect, anticipate and avoid social threats. Our hypothesis makes testable predictions about the environments in which paranoia should be most common as well as the developmental trajectory of paranoia across the lifespan. We suggest that paranoia should not solely be viewed as a pathological symptom of a mental disorder but also as a part of a normally-functioning human psychology.

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Section: A Coalitional Psychology Model Of Paranoiamentioning

confidence: 62%

An evolutionary perspective on paranoia

Raihani

Bell

2018

Nat Hum Behav

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“…Epidemiological evidence supports this prediction: an increased tendency for paranoid thinking has been documented in general population groups that are involved in higher-than-average rates of coalitionary aggression, such as gang members (62) and army veterans (63,64). The probability of inter-coalitionary violence is increased under conditions of resource scarcity (65) and, as expected, living in poverty is also associated with increased tendency for paranoid thinking (66).…”

Section: Predictions Deriving From a Coalitional Psychology Model Of mentioning

confidence: 62%

An evolutionary perspective on paranoia

Raihani¹,

Bell²

2018

Preprint

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Although paranoia is the most commonly presenting symptom of psychosis, paranoid thoughts occur frequently in the general population and range widely in severity, from mild socio-evaluative concerns to frank delusions about the harmful intentions of others. Furthermore, paranoia commonly appears after a surprisingly diverse range of difficulties including trauma, brain injury, sleep deprivation, drug use, and psychiatric and neurological disorder. Evolutionary accounts of paranoia have been proposed before but have largely focused on paranoia as a misplaced threat response. Although social threat is clearly a key component, the experience of paranoia is markedly more complex than these accounts would lead us to believe: paranoia can involve multiple alterations in the perception of the social environment, the identification of specific but seemingly arbitrary groups as the source of persecution, and extended beliefs about conspiracy and complex coordination between the perceived persecutors. Here, we argue for an evolutionary approach to paranoia that more fully accounts for its complex social phenomenology and considers how it can be understood in light of our evolved social cognition. More specifically, in terms of the ability to form coalitions and coordinate between groups in situations of cooperation and competition.

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“…A number of studies have highlighted the prevalence of violence in pastoralist societies in Ethiopia and Kenya (Hagmann & Mulugeta, 2008; Greiner, 2013; Zefferman & Mathew, 2015), while others discussed possible links with environmental conditions (Gray et al, 2003; Meier, Bond & Bond, 2007; Schilling, Opiyo & Scheffran, 2012; Ember, Adem & Skoggard, 2013; Ayana et al, 2016). Besides cultural traits, for example cattle-raiding (Witsenburg & Adano, 2009; Ember et al, 2012, 2014), other factors might make districts with substantial levels of pastoralism more susceptible to violence 13 – notably central government neglect, leading to higher poverty levels, malnutrition rates, and lower living standards in general (Stockton, 2012), creating circumstances where people might resort to violence for social advances (Greiner, 2013).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On climate and conflict: Precipitation decline and communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya

Weezel

2019

Journal of Peace Research

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This study exploits a sudden and abrupt decline in precipitation of the long rains season in the Horn of Africa to analyze the possible link between climate change and violent armed conflict. Following the 1998 El Niño there has been an overall reduction in precipitation levels – associated with sea-surface temperature changes in the Indian and Pacific Oceans – resulting in an increase in the number and severity of droughts. Given that the probable cause of this shift is anthropogenic forcing, it provides a unique opportunity to study the effect of climate change on society compared to statistical inference based on weather variation. Focusing on communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya between 1999 and 2014, exploiting cross-sectional variation across districts, the regression analysis links the precipitation decline to an additional 1.3 conflict events per district. The main estimates show that there is a negative correlation between precipitation and communal conflict with a probability of 0.90. Changing model specification to consider plausible alternative models and accommodate other identifying assumptions produces broadly similar results. The generaliziability of the link between precipitation decline and conflict breaks down when using out-of-sample cross-validation to test the external validity. A leave-one-out cross-validation exercise shows that accounting for climate contributes relatively little to improving the predictive performance of the model. This suggests that there are other more salient factors underlying communal violence in Ethiopia and Kenya. As such, in this case the link between climate and conflict should not be overstated.

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Risk, Uncertainty, and Violence in Eastern Africa

Cited by 16 publications

References 31 publications

An evolutionary perspective on paranoia

An evolutionary perspective on paranoia

An evolutionary perspective on paranoia

On climate and conflict: Precipitation decline and communal conflict in Ethiopia and Kenya

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