In this paper, we identify and document the empirical characteristics of the key drivers of convertible arbitrage as a strategy and how they impact the performance of convertible arbitrage hedge funds. We show that the returns of a buy-and-hedge strategy involving taking a long position in convertible bonds ("CBs") while hedging the equity risk alone explains a substantial amount of these funds' return dynamics. In addition, we highlight the importance of non-price variables such as extreme market-wide events and the supply of CBs on performance. Out-ofsample tests provide corroborative evidence on our model's predictions. At a more micro level, larger funds appear to be less dependent on directional exposure to CBs and more active in shorting stocks to hedge their exposure than smaller funds. They are also more vulnerable to supply shocks in the CB market. These findings are consistent with economies of scale that large funds enjoy in accessing the stock loan market. However, the friction involved in adjusting the stock of risk capital managed by a large fund can negatively impact performance when the supply of CBs declines. Taken together, our findings are consistent with convertible arbitrageurs collectively being rewarded for playing an intermediation role of funding CB issuers whilst distributing part of the equity risk of CBs to the equity market.Keywords: Hedge funds, Convertible Bonds, Convertible arbitrage, Supply, Risk Factors JEL classification: G10, G19, G23 1
IntroductionAt the turn of the century, capitalization of the global convertible bond ("CB") market stood at just under $300 billion while the US equity market was more than 50 times higher at over $1.5 trillion. Yet during the difficult market conditions between 2000 and 2002 (with events such as end to the dotcom bubble, September 11, and the accounting scandals at Worldcom and Enron), the new issues in both these markets were of similar orders of magnitude-close to $300 billion. Even during the financial crisis of [2007][2008], firms managed to raise about $118 billion in the US CB market. 1 This underscores the importance of the CB market as a source of capital for corporations during adverse economic conditions. 2To smooth the placement of such a large-scale issuance of CBs, economic agents willing to assume the inventory risk are clearly needed. Coincident to these macro events, the last decade has witnessed a rapid growth of convertible arbitrage ("CA 1 Equity data are from Federal Reserve Bulletin (various issues). We thank Jeff Wurgler for making it available on his website http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~jwurgler/. CB estimate is from the public and private proceeds of convertible debt from Thomson Reuters Financial's SDC Platinum database, which we also use later on for our out-of-sample analysis. 2 Apart from being a useful source of liquidity to issuers during adverse market conditions, the issuance of CBs depends also on the costs and benefits compared to other forms of securities issuance. Firms selling CBs incur costs inclu...