Risks and Threats to Ensuring Food Security of Ukraine: Methodological Foundations and Practical Evaluation

Abstract

The article provides substantiation to the fact that ensuring food security of the state is an important component of its socioeconomic policy and a key indicator of the effectiveness of the national strategy in the local and global context. It has been proved that identification of risks and threats to food security in a timely manner makes it possible to assess the current trends of its main indicators and to further forecast them in a rapidly changing market environment. It has been identified and methodically supported that the system of risks and threats to food security is complementary related to the possibility of negative changes in its level, because the more likely the possibility of adverse changes, the higher the level of risk. It has been proved that the process of identifying food security risks should be based on the results of the analysis of the factors that cause them. Methodological steps in the context of risk assessment of the country in terms of the loss of food security have been identified: 1) systematization of food security indicators from the standpoint of risk management; 2) identification of all factors/threats that may cause adverse changes in indicators; 3) assessment of the possibility/probability of negative changes in food security indicators due to each of the identified factors/threats. The system of risks is determined from the standpoint of taking into account the sphere of formation and realization of resource potential, the sphere of food production, and the sphere of food distribution and consumption. A methodological approach to the calculation of the risk of negative fluctuations of food security indicators in the context of estimating the corresponding coefficients of semi-variation has been proposed. Strategically important types of agricultural products have been selected for the study, namely grain crops and legumes, sunflower, vegetables, meat and milk. In general, the calculations have shown an increased risk of negative fluctuations in the affordability of domestic food products against the background of intensification of internal and external threats to food security of Ukraine. The integrated risk coefficient for agriculture at large is 14.03 (the risk coefficient of crop production is 15.37, for animal husbandry 7.04).

Ensuring Food Security of Ukraine in the Conditions of Globalization Dimensions

“…The structure of food distribution by sales channels, the presence of a retail network per 10 thousand people, the number of outlets in food markets per 10 thousand people, the state of development of wholesale food products, the density of public paved roads and railway tracks Source: improved by the authors according to data (Soloviova, 2016;Skydan et al, 2019;Skrypnyk and Starychenko, 2017;Skydan and Hrynyshyn, 2020; The State of Food Security…, 2018).…”

“…Source: improved by the authors according to data (Yakovenko and Cherevko, 2016;Soloviova, 2016;Skydan et al, 2019;Skrypnyk and Starychenko, 2017;Skydan and Hrynyshyn, 2020).…”

“…The higher the value of this factor, the higher the risk and the lower the level of food security. As a result, a vector of food safety sub-indicators Хwas formed (Skydan et al, 2019;Skrypnyk and Starychenko, 2017;Skydan and Hrynyshyn, 2020): Source: improved by the authors according to data (Soloviova, 2016;Skydan et al, 2019;Skrypnyk and Starychenko, 2017;Skydan and Hrynyshyn, 2020).…”

“…Systematization of the results of the analysis according to the methodology allows to get the perception of the integrated state of food security of the country and regions in the current period with the identification of trends of external threats and promising areas to strengthen resource potential, given the strengthening of competitive positions of agricultural producers in European and world food markets. Thus, the cluster analysis allows to generalize results of selfsufficiency of regions of the country with food on integral sub-indicators which are divided into such: sub-indicator of self-sufficiency with meat and milk, sub-indicator of selfsufficiency with all basic kinds of food and sub-indicator of dynamics of self-sufficiency with food products (formulas (2)-( 4)) (Skydan et al, 2019;Skrypnyk and Starychenko, 2017;Skydan and Hrynyshyn, 2020). Most growth rates are negative.…”

“…In this case, the calculation of the integrated self-sufficiency indicator by formula ( 4) is impossible. To solve this problem, the initial levels of growth rates are adjusted by formula (5) (Skydan et al, 2019;Skrypnyk and Starychenko, 2017;Skydan and Hrynyshyn, 2020):…”