Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism: 1968–2004

Abstract

terror-related casualty risks on the order of 0.5%-a level 2 to 3 orders of magnitude more than those experienced in OR that increased ~100-fold over the same period. Individual event fatality has increased steadily, the median increasing from 14 to 50%. Lorenz curves obtained indicate substantial dispersion among victim/event rates: about half of all victims were caused by the top 2.5% (or 10%) of harm-ranked events in OR (or IS). Extreme values of victim/event rates were approximated fairly well by generalized Pareto models (typically used to fit to data on forest fires, sea levels, earthquakes, etc.). These results were in turn used to forecast maximum ORand IS-specific victims/event rates through 2080, illustrating empirically based methods that could be applied to improve strategies to assess, prevent and manage terror-related risks and consequences.

Responsible policy analysis in aviation security with an evaluation of PreCheck

“…Therefore they generally lie within the range deemed by regulators internationally to be safe or acceptable and do not require further regulation (see also Bogen and Jones, 2006;Gardner, 2008). Applying conventional standards, then, terrorism currently presents a threat to human life in the Western world that is, in general, acceptable, and efforts, particularly expensive ones, to further reduce its likelihood or consequences are scarcely justified.…”

Mass Disaster Victim Identification

“…A statistical analysis of the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) for the years 1968-2004 shows an incidence of 0.2% for chemical weapons and 0.08% for biological weapons in terrorist attacks (Bogen 2006).…”

Political Communication and Agroterrorism

“…From a historical point of view agroterrorism against the food industry both globally and in the United States is trivial. Using the RAND-MIPT Terrorism Database (see Bogen and Jones, 2006) there were between 1 January 1968 and 27 March 2006 a total of 26,281 terrorism incidents globally, injuring 89,244 and killing 36,039. Of these only 577 or about 2.1% occurred in North America with 4,216 injuries (4.7%) and 3,565 deaths (9.9%) and including the 3 events of 11 September 2001 (2,982 dead, 2,337 injured) as well as those of the Oklahoma City bombing on 19 April 1995 (168 dead, 500 injured) that accounted for about 88% of all deaths and 67% of all injuries from terrorism in North America.…”