Risky Decision-Making and Hazard Prediction are Negatively Related and Could Be Assessed Independently Using Driving Footage

Abstract

Introduction: Traffic collisions are a principal cause of death in Europe, disproportionately affecting young drivers. Driving safety depends not only on our ability to anticipate and respond to dangers on the road but also on the level of risk we are willing to engage within our own driving behaviour. Methods: Hazard prediction (HPr) and risky decision-making (RDM) tests were given to three groups of young Spaniards (169 participants): 54 non-drivers (M=20), 65 novice (M=21) and, 50 experienced drivers (M=26 years old). Both tests presented participants with video clips of driving recorded from the driver's perspective. The HPr test contained hazardous situations caused by the actions of another road user (eg, a pedestrian crossing the road). Each HPr clip was occluded as a hazard began to unfold and participants were asked to predict "what happens next?" They selected their answer from four on-screen options. The RDM test used clips where any imminent danger would be provoked by the film-car driver's risky behaviour (eg, overtaking illegally). Participants were asked to report the probability of following certain types of risky behaviour (eg, "Would you go forward with the lights on amber?" or "Would you overtake the cyclist/lorry/bus at this point?"). In addition, the effect of the locality of the driving scenarios was manipulated: they could take place in the participant's native country (Spain) or in a different country (UK). Results: Non-drivers and novice drivers were less able to predict upcoming hazards and more likely to make risky decisions. Driving scenarios from another country (UK) provoked riskier decisions than those from the participants' home country (Spain). Conclusion: Improvement in HPr skills among novice or new drivers poses a huge challenge as far as driver training is concerned, though it is only part of the solution. Young inexperienced drivers' willingness to engage in risky behaviour also needs to be tackled. Our results suggest that such RDM can be assessed in a similar way to HPr skill, using a naturalistic approach, which raises the possibility of assessing and training drivers on a wider range of safety-related behaviours.

Assessing Willingness to Engage in Risky Driving Behaviour Using Naturalistic Driving Footage: The Role of Age and Gender

“…While participants in online studies are susceptible to distraction and often multitask, studies have reported that they are still capable of providing conscientious and thoughtful answers independently of the device or context [ 127 , 128 ]. In addition, this online version of the study has replicated the results obtained by Castro et al [ 101 ], who conducted their study in laboratory settings. These results indicate that online assessment could be a plausible option for future research.…”

“…Second, experience is often associated with hazard perception (driving skill), which is independent of the willingness to engage in risky driving behaviour [ 28 , 38 , 70 ]. Castro et al [ 101 ] emphasised the importance of assessing hazard perception (driving skill) and risky decision making (willingness to engage in risky driving) separately to avoid confounding both variables. This is of importance, as drivers could correctly perceive a hazard and at the same time underestimate the danger this hazard poses [ 111 , 112 ].…”

“…The video clips used in their study required participants to make a decision in relation to different risky active situations such as overtaking manoeuvres, speed choices and intersections. In a recent study, Castro et al [ 101 ] looked at the possibility to assess the process of hazard prediction and risky decision making independently, showing participants both active and passive hazards. They assessed young drivers and found that those participants with less experience were less able to predict upcoming hazards and more likely to make riskier decisions.…”

“…The results suggested that risky decision making can be assessed in a similar way to the hazard prediction skill. Castro et al [ 101 ], however, did not investigate differences in responses across the hazardous scenarios featured in their test (overtaking bus/bike and running through amber light) or whether gender and age impact drivers’ decision to assume risk in each of these situations.…”

“…In order to test the above questions, we used the same clips of real traffic situations (recorded in the UK) as Castro et al [ 101 ]. However, unlike Castro et al, the study was conducted online, and clips were presented via online software to test whether this version would provide valid results.…”