Transportation process reliability is a competitive advantage in the market of cargo delivery services. Transportation customers are interested in shipping cargoes within agreed timeframes and ensuring their safety. These are the two main parameters of transportation process reliability, compliance with which depends on a number of factors. In particular, changes in the external environment where road transportation companies operate inevitably affect the transportation process stability. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to road transportation reliability and risk mitigation based on the digital twin concept. The variability of business processes is usually the reason for deviations from the transportation terms agreed with the customer. These deviations can be interpreted as failures in delivering cargoes. A prerequisite for ensuring smooth cargo transportation by a road transportation company is the reduction of deviations in the performance of its business processes. The article proposes methods of computer modeling and creating a digital twin of a company reflecting the reference business processes for transportation. As a result, various deviations from the reference digital model that business processes exhibit when there are changes in the external environment can be promptly identified and corrected.