Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades

Minière, Audrey; Schuckmann, Karina von; Sallée, Jean‐Baptiste

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3058881/v1

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Hence, the adjustment to Argo is generally small, it tends to average out over the SOL, and its global integral oscillates around zero (Figs. 1,2,3). Past this initial breakthrough, however, much remains to be understood about SOL-EI and EI storage in the dark ocean.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Imbalance in the Sunlit Ocean Layer

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2024

Preprint

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The sunlit ocean layer (SOL), above 200m depth, is where marine life is most abundant and critical climate feedbacks are enabled. Satellite and in-situ temperature data make it evident that this crucial ocean layer is already reacting to global warming, as underscored recently by unprecedented peaks in marine heat waves. Yet, the SOL heat budget is not well understood, globally or regionally, as it remains difficult to estimate processes that control it from observations alone. Here we resolve this issue using an ocean reanalysis and provide the first operational definition of SOL’s energy imbalance (SOL-EI), as a heat budget anomaly relative to the 1981-2010 period. Our estimate of SOL-EI shows that it amounts to a relatively small imbalance between air-sea heat flux and ocean heat transports. Further analysis reveals a recent, tenfold increase in SOL-EI by comparing 2013-2022 with the previous decade, which could have catastrophic environmental consequences.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Imbalance in the Sunlit Ocean Layer

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2024

Preprint

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“…Ocean heat uptake estimates are from a recent analysis of ocean heat content products [74] including the Global Climate Observing System [75].…”

Section: Observational Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent

Vogt,

de Lavergne,

Sallée

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The ocean moderates global warming by absorbing most of the excess heat resulting from anthropogenic climate change. However, this ocean heat uptake also causes sea level rise, more frequent extreme events, ocean deoxygenation, and multiple impacts on marine ecosystems. Despite their importance for informing climate mitigation and adaptation measures, ocean heat uptake projections still strongly differ between climate models. Here, we provide improved global ocean heat uptake projections by identifying a relationship between present-day Antarctic sea ice extent and future ocean heat uptake across an ensemble of 28 state-of-the-art climate models. Models with a higher present-day sea ice extent also simulate greater sea ice loss over the 21st century, a stronger global cloud feedback and atmospheric warming, and hence increased ocean heat uptake. By combining this relationship with satellite observations of Antarctic sea ice, we reduce the uncertainty of ocean heat uptake projections under realistic future emissions scenarios by 12-33%, and show that models underestimate present-day sea ice extent and consequently future ocean heat uptake by 5-7%. Our findings indicate that accounting for biases in the Southern Ocean mean state in the latest generation of climate models implies larger future climate warming.

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Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades

Cited by 2 publications

References 64 publications

Energy Imbalance in the Sunlit Ocean Layer

Energy Imbalance in the Sunlit Ocean Layer

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent

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