Robust design of a future 100% renewable european energy supply system with hydrogen infrastructure

Abstract

In light of the latest trends in global installed capacities, the importance of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) to future energy supply systems is evident. Despite this, the inherent intermittency of VRES remains an obstacle to their widespread adoption. Green hydrogen is often suggested as an energy carrier that can account for this in a sustainable manner. In the analysis, a robust European energy system in the context of 2050 and with 100% VRES energy supply is designed through an iterative minimal cost-optimization approach that ensures robust security of supply over 38 weather-year scenarios . The impact of spatial VRES variability is factored in by defining exclusive VRES groups within each optimization region and, from this, it can be seen that higher numbers of groups in each region offer cheap electricity generation locations to the optimizer and thus decrease the total annual cost of the system. Beyond this, the robust system design and impact of inter-annual variability is identified by iteratively combining the installed capacities of different system designs obtained by applying 38 historical weather years. The robust system design outlined here has significantly lower capacities in comparison to the maximum regional capacities obtained in the first round of optimization.

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