2022
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00643-y
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Robust estimates for the decadal evolution of Agulhas leakage from the 1960s to the 2010s

Abstract: Agulhas leakage, the transport of warm and salty waters from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic, has been suggested to increase under anthropogenic climate change, due to strengthening Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. The resulting enhanced salt transport into the South Atlantic may counteract the projected weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation through warming and ice melting. Here we combine existing and new observation- and model-based Agulhas leakage estimates to robustly quantify its d… Show more

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Cited by 6 publications
(5 citation statements)
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“…The Agulhas leakage decreased in the 1983–2018 period, consistent with the uncertainty reported by Rühs et al. (2022).…”
Section: Summary and Concluding Remarkssupporting
confidence: 90%
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“…The Agulhas leakage decreased in the 1983–2018 period, consistent with the uncertainty reported by Rühs et al. (2022).…”
Section: Summary and Concluding Remarkssupporting
confidence: 90%
“…The Yanai wave beam in the Atlantic intensified, but this change was masked by a decrease in longer components of intra-annual KE. The Agulhas leakage decreased in the 1983-2018 period, consistent with the uncertainty reported by Rühs et al (2022).…”
Section: Temporal Changessupporting
confidence: 88%
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“…It is common practice in many Lagrangian studies of advective timescales (e.g., Drake et al., 2018; Tamsitt et al., 2021), and pathways (e.g., Blanke et al., 1999; Fröhle et al., 2022; Rühs et al., 2022; Schmidt et al., 2021; Tamsitt et al., 2017; Vallès‐Casanova et al., 2022; van Sebille et al., 2014), to tag particles with a volume transport (van Sebille et al., 2018). Indeed Lagrangian particle experiments conducted with Parcels have previously been used to estimate volume transports, even when the integration scheme is not strictly volume conserving (Fröhle et al., 2022; Rühs et al., 2022; Schmidt et al., 2021; Vallès‐Casanova et al., 2022), because the trajectories calculated by explicit time‐stepping in the absence of diffusion are similar to trajectories calculated by analytical methods (van Sebille et al., 2018). We follow this convention in our analyses and weight each particle in our simulation with the transport through the corresponding model grid cell in which it was released.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This has led to an enhanced transport of salt into the South Atlantic, potentially countering any weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) caused by warming and melting ice sheets (Weijer et al, 2002;Biastoch & Böning, 2013). Despite this, Agulhas Leakage is hard to observe and simulate, meaning estimates for its past and future evolution are limited and subject to considerable uncertainty (Rühs et al, 2022). Agulhas Leakage is connected to interannual patterns of Indian and the Pacific Ocean variability, establishing a relationship with the Indian Ocean Dipole and Pacific Ocean La Niña/El Niño phases (Schouten et al, 2002b;Palastanga et al, 2006).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%