Robust identification of air traffic flow patterns in Metroplex terminal areas under demand uncertainty

Abstract

Multi-Airport Systems (MAS), or Metroplexes, serve air traffic demand in cities with two or more airports. Due to the spatial proximity and operational interdependency of the airports, Metroplex airspaces are characterized by high complexity, and current system structures fail to provide satisfactory utilization of the available airspace resources. In order to support system-level design and management towards increased operational efficiency in such systems, an accurate depiction of major demand patterns is a prerequisite. This paper proposes a framework for the robust identification of significant air traffic flow patterns in Metroplex systems, which is aligned with the dynamic route service policy for the effective management of Metroplex operations. We first characterize deterministic demand through a spatio-temporal clustering algorithm that takes into account changes in the traffic flows over the planning horizon. Then, in order to handle uncertainties in the demand, a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) approach is proposed, which takes into account demand variations and prediction errors in a robust way to ensure the reliability of the demand identification. The DRO-based approach is applied on pre-tactical (i.e. one-day planning) as well as operational levels (i.e. 2-h rolling horizon). The framework is applied to Time Based Flow Management (TBFM) data from the New York Metroplex. The framework and results are validated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs)

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“…Estimating airport capacity to formulate appropriate traffic management strategies is remarkably difficult because of the uncertainty of weather forecast for terminal airspace. In the 12 airports included in the National Airspace System (NAS) Plan released by the FAA in 2008 and 2009, the end time of the weather-related ground delay program was averagely 95 minutes earlier than that of the initially planned ground delay program, which was nearly 2 hours earlier than the end time of the revised ground delay program [4,5]. For the Next Generation Air Transportation System, the FAA and National Aeronautics and Space Administration study the reduction of the negative impact of weather conditions on NAS.…”

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