Robust Thermal Design for Power Device Package Using Response Surface Method and Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

In the present study, the robust thermal design of a power device package was accomplished using thermal conduction calculation, design of experiment, response surface method and Monte Carlo simulation. Initially, the effects of the design parameters on the solder strain were examined in terms of the thermal expansion difference as a result of unsteady thermal conduction simulation. From the factorial effects of design parameters, the design proposals were screened. Then, robustness of the thermal resistance was evaluated for the three design proposals obtained. The thermal resistances were calculated by solving the steady thermal conduction equation under the design of experiment conditions. The solder thickness, the substrate thickness, and the cooling fin performance were considered as the fluctuation factors, assuming the error associated with manufacturing process. Using a response surface method, the values of thermal resistance were expressed as a function of the design variables. The variances of the thermal resistance were examined based on Monte Carlo simulations. Related to the cooling fin design, the Pareto line showing the trade-off relation between the fin dimension and the fan velocity was obtained. By repeating the Monte Carlo simulations, the Pareto solution was calculated so that the thermal resistances satisfy the criteria in the position of 95 percentile of the thermal resistance variation. Under the same flow velocity conditions, the fin dimensions become about 10% higher compared to the case where the manufacturing error was not taken into account. By carrying out the thermal design following this Pareto line, even if the manufacturing error was taken into consideration, the thermal resistance could satisfy the desired value.